Trump Puts Tariffs On Gold Bars—Now The Fed Could Trigger A Shock

Aug. 7, 2025, marked a turning point for bullion. That's when President Donald Trump's new tariffs on one-kilogram gold bars entered the books, a move that could split the global bullion market in two and potentially set the stage for a seismic shift in U.S. monetary policy.

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The U.S. has slapped tariffs of up to 39% on imported kilobars and 100-ounce gold bars, hitting Switzerland — the world's largest refining hub — hardest.

Here's an explainer of what Trump's move could mean for the gold market — and why its impact might stretch far beyond bullion trading, potentially shaping the future of U.S. fiscal and monetary policy.

Trump’s Tariffs Put Sand In The Bullion Engine

According to Ross Norman, CEO of Metalsdaily.com, "imposing 39% tariffs on Swiss kilobars is akin to pouring sand into an otherwise well functioning engine."

Gold traded in New York, about 1,000 tonnes a year, was instantly re-priced at least $100 higher per ounce, creating a $3.2 billion overnight windfall for holders.

The gap between London spot prices and New York futures has already widened beyond $100 and could, according to Norman, stretch to several hundred dollars.

Swiss bars may soon trade at a discount, while non-Swiss bars fetch a steep premium. Traders see a new level of risk for COMEX short sellers, as sourcing physical bars for delivery just became more costly and complicated.

Weaponizing The Gold Market?

Market commentators on social media X are calling the policy a direct squeeze on Swiss refiners while boosting U.S. domestic refiners' market share.

The page Endgame macro highlighted that the longer-term strategy may be "less about tariffs for revenue and more about weaponizing the gold market," reshaping how and where the world's gold benchmark is set.

“This reasserts New York as the central arena for price discovery, and ensures that if gold is going to play a larger role in the future global monetary system, it will do so on U.S. terms,” Endgamemacro stated.

Gold strategist Peter Schiff said the move "could wreak havoc on the COMEX" as shorts rush to avoid paying tariffs on Swiss imports if delivery is demanded. Even without imports, he said, the affected bars will trade at higher premiums.

The precious metal – as tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust GLD – has already rallied 28% year-to-date, and is on track for its best year since 2010.

The Fed Connection

The timing of Trump's tariffs is drawing attention because of a recent paper from Colin R. Weiss, Principal Economist at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors,

Just a week ago, Weiss published a note titled “Official Reserve Revaluations: The International Experience,” exploring how countries can use gains from revaluing their official gold reserves to fund spending without raising taxes or issuing new debt.

The U.S. holds 261.5 million troy ounces of gold, valued on its books at just $42.22 per ounce. At current market prices of around $3,300, revaluation could unlock over $850 billion in paper gains.

Over the past three decades, Germany, Italy, Lebanon, Curaçao and Saint Martin, and South Africa have taken similar steps in times of fiscal strain.

Trump's recently signed "One Big Beautiful Bill" is expected to add $3.4 trillion to deficits over the next decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

With U.S. national debt hitting $37 trillion this month and projections of 118% of GDP by 2035, the fiscal stakes are high.

Against that backdrop, controlling more of the gold pricing mechanism and boosting the book value of U.S. gold could provide an unconventional tool for fiscal relief.

Here's the bigger picture: what started as a tariff on gold bars could be part of a broader play, one that touches the heart of how the U.S. manages its debt and positions itself in the global monetary system.

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