Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is hovering around $116,000 ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision as traders on Polymarket are heavily betting on both a 25 basis points and a 50 basis points cut.
What Happened: At the time of writing, a 25 basis points cut is priced at 90%, compared to 8% for a 50 basis points cut and 2% for no cut.
The CME FedWatch tool shows a 94% chance of a smaller cut and a 6% of a bigger cut, with additional cuts expected in October and December.
On Polymarket, trader bobe2 has bet $2.4 million on a smaller cut and stands to win about $180,000. Another trader, kingk8, has bet $502,000 on a 50 basis points cut, with a potential payout of $2.5 million in pure profit.
Also Read: Fed Preview: A Rate Cut Is Baked In, Will Trump Get The ‘Big Cut’ He Wants?
Why It Matters: In his latest podcast, crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen says Bitcoin could reach new all-time highs in October, following historical breakout patterns, even if the Fed's decision sparks initial turbulence.
Cowen outlined two scenarios:
- A 2017-style gradual climb from September lows into an October breakout.
- A 2020-like dip to the 20-week SMA before a strong rally.
He noted October's history as a bullish month for Bitcoin, with key breakouts in 2017, 2020, and 2023, but warned that equity market weakness (during seasonal corrections of Q3–Q4) and misleading post-FOMC volatility remain risks, where initial moves are often reversed.
Cowen cautioned about immediate post-FOMC volatility, observing that “normally what happens, the first move is the wrong one.”
This suggests initial market reactions may be misleading, with the true direction emerging after initial volatility subsides.
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