Wall Street Owns Almost No Gold—And That's Exactly Why Prices May Keep Rising

It's shaping up to be a historic year for gold, with the metal rocketing toward its best performance since 1978, and analysts say the rally may be far from over—despite technical charts screaming that prices are overbought.

• GLD ETF is trading at record highs. Check live chart here.

Gold spot prices rose to $3,760 per ounce on Friday, recovering from a brief dip after hitting a record high of $3,790 on Tuesday.

That brings the year-to-date gain to a stunning 43%, the biggest annual surge in nearly half a century.

Overbought? Yes. But That Doesn’t Mean It Can’t Go Higher From Here

Many traders rely on technical indicators to assess whether an asset is overextended, and gold's current setup fits that definition.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index, or RSI—a momentum oscillator that gauges whether an asset is overbought (above 70) or oversold (below 30)—currently sits at 74.30. The RSI has remained above 70 for over three weeks.

In addition, gold prices are now trading 20% above their 200-day moving average and 8% above the 50-day average—both well outside typical ranges.

These are signs of strong upward momentum, but also suggest caution as markets tend to revert back toward the mean over time.

So Why Are Analysts Still Bullish on Gold?

Despite the overheating signals, several leading voices on Wall Street are saying gold’s structural setup remains supportive of more gains.

Bank of America's chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett said on Friday gold is "tactically overbought but structurally under-owned," highlighting how little of the metal is actually held across major portfolios.

According to Hartnett, gold represents just 0.4% of private client assets under management and only 2.4% of institutional portfolios. That leaves significant room for increased allocation, especially if inflation fears resurface or geopolitical tensions continue to simmer.

In the last four weeks alone, gold has seen record inflows, as investors rotate out of equities and into perceived safe-haven assets.

Who's Buying? Three Key Drivers Behind the Breakout

Goldman Sachs analyst Lina Thomas attributed the latest surge to a trio of "conviction buyers," including a notable rise in exchange-traded fund holdings, increased speculative positioning by traders and a pickup in central bank purchases after the slower summer period.

Thomas said the bank remains confident in its mid-2026 price forecast of $4,000 per ounce, adding that "the risks are skewed to the upside."

Bottom Line

Even with gold hitting all-time highs and flashing technical red flags, the lack of broad institutional and retail ownership means the rally may have more fuel in the tank.

If Wall Street starts meaningfully reallocating toward the metal, the next leg higher could come faster than many expect.

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