The price of gold surged to $3,800 per ounce on Monday, sending the market value of U.S. gold reserves past the $1 trillion mark—but on the government's books, it's still worth pennies in comparison.
The U.S. holds 261.5 million troy ounces of gold, or 8,133 metric tons. That’s the largest stockpile in the world. At current market prices, this hoard is worth roughly $994 billion, just shy of $1 trillion.
Yet officially, Washington continues to value its gold at $42.22 per ounce, a price set by Congress in 1973—which puts the total at only $11.04 billion on paper.
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Is A Revaluation Coming?
In early August, a paper published by Federal Reserve economist Colin Weiss fueled speculation about reevaluating the U.S. valuation of its gold.
Weiss described a possible scenario in which the government uses the "valuation gains" to reduce public debt without issuing new bonds or raising taxes.
If the U.S. were to revalue its 261.5 million troy ounces from $42.22 to $3,800, the total book value of reserves would jump from $11 billion to just under $1 trillion—unlocking a theoretical gain of about $983 billion.
That amount wouldn’t solve the U.S. debt problem overnight—it's now well above $35 trillion—but it could provide temporary fiscal breathing room.
Gold Is Having Its Moment, But What’s Next?
September is on track for being gold's best month since July 2020, rising 10.8%, and year-to-date gains stand at 45.5%—on track for the best annual performance since 1979, when prices exploded by 133%.
Investor demand has surged alongside gold's rally, with the world's two largest gold-backed ETFs—SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) and iShares Gold Trust (NYSE: IAU)—pulling in nearly $5 billion in September alone, putting them on pace for their strongest annual inflows since 2020.
Bank of America metals strategist Michael Widmer maintains a $4,000 target for gold by 2026, citing inflation, monetary easing, and geopolitical stress as long-term catalysts for the price.
"Since 2001, gold has never declined in a scenario where U.S. CPI is above 2% and the Fed is easing monetary policy," Widmer said, highlighting what he calls the "inflationary easing" sweet spot.
He noted that even excluding the Global Financial Crisis, gold has delivered annualized returns of around 13% in such environments.
That performance, he said, isn't a fluke—it reflects structural demand as a hedge against currency debasement, interest rate suppression, and fiscal uncertainty.
"Gold has outperformed other metals like copper since 2001," he said. "This does not necessarily mean the red metal is a laggard; rather it reinforces how popular gold has become."
That popularity isn't just among retail or institutional investors. Central banks are also ramping up their holdings, now owning more gold than U.S. Treasuries in some cases, as they diversify reserves amid fiscal and political pressure in both developed and emerging markets.
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