Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has crossed the $117,000 on the first day of October, leading technical analysts to predict further upside for the rest of the month.
What Happened: Crypto analyst Kevin shared in his latest Patreon update that the weekly hash ribbons buy signal, which tracks miner capitulation and recovery, has a perfect historical record: 19 signals, each followed by higher Bitcoin prices.
On average, these moves unfold over 2–9 weeks with 101% gains, though minor corrections often occur in the first 2–3 weeks.
The current signal is now in its 10th week, marking the longest duration ever observed, a situation reminiscent of 2023, when Bitcoin rallied strongly after a delayed reaction.
Analysts are monitoring to see if this historic reliability holds or deviates this time.
Technically, Bitcoin has recently formed an inverse head & shoulders pattern on the 4-hour chart and reclaimed a symmetrical triangle, aligning with the idea that "the first move is often the wrong move."
Key resistance sits around $116,500, with higher targets at $118,300 and $120,000–$125,000. While the setup appears bullish, further confirmation is needed before the next leg up.
Also Read: Bitcoin Explodes To $117,000 As ETH, XRP Rally On First Day Of ‘Uptober’
Why It Matters: Kevin noted in a post on X on that if Bitcoin's recent peak near $125,000 marked the cycle top, it would be unprecedented.
Traditional technical and on-chain indicators show no top, volatility is at record lows for 18 months, and sentiment has remained mostly bearish since early 2024.
Compared to past cycles, such a scenario would represent the weakest rally ever, challenging conventional methods of identifying market tops. Kevin advises traders to focus on probabilities, macro fundamentals, and market structure rather than emotional calls, staying ready to act when stronger signals emerge.
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