Tesla’s Inc.’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) third-quarter delivery boom, a 7.4% year-over-year gain, has reignited some of the electric-car fever that had faded during so much of 2025.
But lift the hood, and the engine producing those figures doesn’t look so much like a roaring recovery as a sprint brought on by subsidies.
TSLA stock is charging ahead. See what is driving the movement here.
The expiration of the U.S. federal EV tax credit in September triggered a last-minute surge in demand, rather than a revival in organic demand. “We note that US EV industry sales likely benefitted from pull-in demand related to the end of the up to $7,500 EV federal tax credit under the IRA,” Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney said in an investor note.
That’s a challenge for Tesla-heavy ETFs like the Simplify Volt TSLA Revolution ETF (NYSE:TESL), up almost 22% year-to-date; T-REX 2X Long Tesla Daily Target ETF (BATS:TSLT), down more than 23% year-to-date and Roundhill TSLA WeeklyPay ETF (BATS:TSLW), down almost 22% year-to-date. They all rocketed when Musk’s magic happened in markets, but now they’re looking at a possible post-subsidy slowdown, increasing competition from Chinese automakers and Musk’s own threat of “a few rough quarters” ahead.
Meanwhile, a more sedate trade is humming along: investors are shifting into manufacturing and value-oriented ETFs that balance traditional toughness with modern-day relevance. The iShares U.S. Manufacturing ETF (NYSE:MADE) and Invesco S&P 500 Pure Value ETF (NYSE:RPV) have emerged as stealth winners, with six-month returns of 42% and 20%, respectively. Both hold exposure to General Motors Co (NYSE:GM) and Ford Motor Co (NYSE:F), legacy automakers that can balance EV volatility with profitable internal combustion and hybrid units.
While Musk is fighting subsidy overhangs and market saturation, these old-school plays provide the sort of dull stability that’s all the rage right now.
Tesla mania might have constructed the EV dream, but the manufacturing mojo is propelling 2025’s ETF performance. At times, the better trade is not chasing the next revolution; it is supporting the ones who know how to build it.
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