Autodesk’s (NASDAQ:ADSK) recent analyst day showcased a strategic pivot towards maximizing profitability and leveraging AI-driven monetization, signaling a forward-looking evolution of its business model.
The company’s focus on long-term efficiency and its expanding role in infrastructure and operations software suggests a determined effort to balance sustainable growth with aggressive financial targets.
Piper Sandler analyst Clarke Jeffries said Autodesk’s strategy to expand AI-driven monetization and strengthen its position in infrastructure and operations software supports its long-term goal of achieving 41% EBIT margins by 2029.
Piper Sandler maintained its Overweight rating and $373 price forecast, based on a discounted cash flow model using a 30x 2029E EV/FCF multiple and a 10% discount rate.
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Jeffries said Autodesk’s focus on efficiency and profitability does not come at the expense of growth. He noted that the company’s evolving business model, anchored in AEC, Manufacturing, and Media, reflects its determination to stay ambitious even in a changing market environment.
Although the company did not provide a formal new growth framework, he said the emphasis on sustainable growth while pursuing fiscal year 2029 margin expansion aligns with investor expectations.
The analyst highlighted Autodesk’s detailed discussion on AI and consumption-based monetization. He said the company disclosed that 17% of current revenue is consumption-driven and that new API monetization initiatives are expected to accelerate this mix.
According to Jeffries, the move reflects Autodesk’s preparation for a future where design work increasingly shifts from human to machine hours. While the shift may slightly lower gross margins, he said it should generate incremental gross profit and strengthen Autodesk’s consumption revenue base.
Jeffries also pointed to Autodesk’s growing appetite in Infrastructure, Water, and Operations, marking an effort to expand beyond its traditional vertical construction focus.
He said Autodesk’s plans to invest organically and inorganically in these segments follow the same multi-year strategy it adopted for Autodesk Construction Cloud.
The analyst noted that this strategy would bring Autodesk into more direct competition with Bentley Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:BSY), a leading infrastructure software provider.
On financials, Jeffries forecast fiscal year 2026 revenue of $7.05 billion and EPS of $9.89, rising to $7.78 billion and $11.32 in fiscal year 2027. He estimated free cash flow margins to approach 36.1% by 2029.
Based on Piper Sandler’s valuation model, the analyst sees a base-case upside of 19% to $373 price forecast by 2029, with a bull-case scenario suggesting potential upside to $508.
Jeffries cited potential risks including weaker demand in Autodesk’s key end markets such as construction, manufacturing, and media and entertainment. He said the company is evolving into an end-to-end plan-design-build-operate SaaS platform.
Price Action: ADSK shares were trading lower by 0.92% to $311.34 at last check Wednesday.
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