Silver's Explosive Move May Be Yet To Come, Analysts Say

Silver's rally to a record high of $51 an ounce this week may have marked a psychological milestone for investors, but analysts say the explosive move could still be ahead.

SLV is building positive momentum. Get the inside scoop here.

Severe physical market stress, soaring lease rates and a structural supply crunch may create a perfect storm on prices to spike higher.

Simply, there is a lot of demand and no available supply of the grey metal. The iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:SLV) – the world’s biggest silver exchange traded fund – remains up over 70% year to date, and more than 20% in just the past month.

Silver Hits $51: Can It Go Higher?

The grey metal set a new all-time high on Wednesday before retreating slightly in New York trade, reflecting both excitement and hesitation around a key technical level.

But macro experts and analysts see the current volatility as a natural pause before potentially much larger gains.

Otavio "Tavi" Costa, macro strategist at Crescat Capital, said the market is digesting a pivotal moment in silver’s long-term setup.

"No need to overthink silver's latest move to $50 and the sharp pullback that followed," Costa said.

"This is a critical level, and nobody knows how long it'll take for the market to digest it."

Silver Lease Rates Explode as Physical Supply Tightens

Meanwhile, behind the scenes, the physical silver market is flashing unprecedented signs of stress.

Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, posted Friday on X that silver lease rates in London surged to 39.2%, writing, "SILVER over $50. $75 next? SILVER LEASE RATES EXPLODE. Physical silver is vanishing."

The one-month silver lease rate — the cost of borrowing physical silver for short-term delivery — exploded late Thursday in London, according to the Japan Bullion Market Association.

Rates hit 39.2% for one-month tenors, signaling desperate demand for physical silver amid dwindling available supply.

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, confirmed the stress in physical markets, calling attention to a rare dislocation between global trading hubs.

"The silver market is showing clear signs of stress amid severe physical tightness in the London cash market," Hansen said.

"One-month lease rates have spiked … LBMA is trading at a rare $2.7 premium over COMEX."

That premium suggests immediate demand for deliverable silver, while futures markets lag due to liquidity issues. Hansen added that the surge in borrowing costs, paired with reduced market maker participation, is driving extreme price swings.

Short-Sellers Face Rising Pressure

According to MacroStrategy Partnership, the sudden rise in lease rates has wider implications for the silver market’s structure — especially for leveraged short-sellers.

"Silver lease rates went ballistic yesterday," the firm wrote on X. "The 1-, 3-, and 12-month lease rates jumped to 35%, 20%, and 8.6%, respectively."

These levels imply that holding short positions in silver is now prohibitively expensive. For example, a trader rolling a silver short for three months would effectively pay a 5% penalty, while long holders of physical silver could expect that return simply by leasing it out.

Is Silver Ready To Break Decades of Range Trading?

The idea that silver may finally break out of a 50-year trading range is gaining traction. With demand outpacing supply, and evidence of stress at the market's physical core, the breakout above $50 could prove to be a launchpad — not a ceiling.

As volatility rises and lease rates explode, many in the precious metals world are beginning to echo Costa's sentiment: this isn't the end of the silver story — it's the beginning.

"What I do know is that triple tops rarely hold. And with gold still trading at roughly 80 times the price of silver, I wouldn't be betting against a breakout here. If you ask me, an explosive move feels imminent."

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