Trump's Fed Chair Shortlist Narrows To Five Doves: Who Are They?

Following a series of intense interviews, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has reportedly cut President Donald Trump's list of Federal Reserve chair candidates to down to five, from an initial pool of eleven.

The final contenders to replace Jerome Powell reflect a mix of institutional experience and market pragmatism, all tilting toward a more dovish policy stance as Trump prepares to reshape the central bank's direction by early next year.

Prediction markets on Kalshi, a derivatives trading platform approved by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, currently price Kevin Hassett as the frontrunner with 32% odds, followed by Michelle Bowman (19%), Christopher Waller (17%), and Rick Rieder and Kevin Warsh (15% each).

Kevin Hassett: A Trump Insider With A Dovish Tilt

Kevin Hassett, who led the Council of Economic Advisers during Trump's first term and now serves as director of the National Economic Council, has made clear his preference for lower interest rates.

Speaking on CNBC after the Fed's 25-basis-point rate cut in September, Hassett said, "That's a good first step in the right direction of much lower rates."

He described the economy as "through the roof," citing 3.3% second-quarter GDP growth and 6% year-over-year retail sales in the control group. Hassett's outlook hinges on supply-side expansion—growth driven by production and investment rather than demand stimulus.

"When the growth comes from supply-side factors, you can have more growth without inflation," he said.

Rick Rieder: Market Veteran Managing $2.4 Trillion

Rick Rieder, chief investment officer for Global Fixed Income at BlackRock Inc., oversees roughly $2.4 trillion in assets and chairs the firm's Investment Council.

In a September post on X, Rieder wrote that the "current high-rate environment continues to disproportionately burden lower-income earners while paralyzing the housing market."

“Further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are not just warranted—they are essential to restoring balance and broad-based economic resilience,” Rieder said.

Rieder's perspective aligns with Wall Street's growing concerns over affordability, with qualifying incomes for first-time home buyers having doubled in five years.

Michelle Bowman And Christopher Waller: Doves from Within

The two sitting Fed officials, Vice Chair Michelle Bowman and Governor Christopher Waller, emerged as internal dissenters last summer.

Both opposed the Federal Open Market Committee's July decision to hold rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%, marking one of the most divided meetings in decades.

Waller said that "tariffs are one-off increases in the price level and do not cause inflation beyond a temporary spike." He added, "With underlying inflation near target and the upside risks limited, we should not wait until the labor market deteriorates before we cut."

Bowman echoed that sentiment last month, noting that "recent data show a materially more fragile labor market." She said she supports "bringing the federal funds rate back to its neutral level," indicating her readiness to pivot toward easing.

Kevin Warsh: The Call For A Regime Change At The Fed

Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor (2006–2011), has publicly called for what he terms a "regime change" at the central bank.

In an August CNBC interview, he criticized the Fed for being "stuck with models from 1978" and for lacking credibility after years of shifting narratives.

Dovish Pivot Already in Play?

Regardless of who Trump ultimately nominates, the market is drawing one clear conclusion: the next Fed leader will lean dovish.

All five candidates have expressed support for easier monetary policy in various ways, a sharp contrast to the more hawkish stance maintained by Powell through 2024 and into mid-2025.

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"I don't think we need policy continuity," Warsh said. "That brought about the greatest mistake in macroeconomic policy in 45 years." He also warned that the Fed's credibility crisis deepened after the 100-basis-point rate cuts before the 2024 election triggered a rise in long-term yields.