Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) is trading around $4,000 as analyst Benjamin Cowen expects a final push toward new all-time highs before a potential 2026 market downturn,
What Happened: In his latest podcast, Cowen explained that Ethereum's current price action is in “a dubious speculation phase”, aligning with his cycle framework: ETH forms a macro higher low, trends toward its lower regression band, then recovers.
He cited that April 2025 marked a key pivot, with ETH catching up after the tight-money phase of higher rates and quantitative tightening.
Cowen stressed that ETH/BTC is the key alt-season indicator.
ETH/BTC peaked in mid-August 2025 alongside ETH's all-time high and typically weakens through September–October, with potential for a bounce in November before another dip into early December, reminiscent of 2017.
Also Read: Bitcoin Crosses $111,000 As Ethereum, Dogecoin Surge Ahead Of Inflation Data
What's Next: Cowen highlighted that Ethereum has retested the 20/21-week moving average (~$3,800), consistent with a ~30% correction.
He expects a rebound toward new highs but cautions this may be the final rally of the cycle, likely topping within three months.
For ETH/BTC, potential downside is 0.031–0.034 before a rebound toward ~0.053.
A failure below the bull market support band would invalidate his outlook. Bitcoin dominance may rise to 63–64%, keeping ETH suppressed until a late-Q4 reversal.
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