Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR) fell nearly 5% to $263 on Thursday, extending a 40% decline since July as sentiment weakens across Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC)-linked equities.
Analysts Say Oversold MSTR Could Spark $28B S&P 500 Flow Boost
Despite the steep slide, 10x Research's Markus Thielen argues the stock could be nearing an inflection point ahead of Thursday's earnings report.
He expects the company to post a $3.6 billion profit from mark-to-market gains on its Bitcoin holdings, possibly reigniting speculation over S&P 500 index inclusion.
"Inclusion in the index could trigger as much as $28 billion in passive and active fund flows," Thielen said, noting that the stock's speculative premium has now vanished.
He added that Strategy Inc. valuation now sits close to the value of its Bitcoin reserves, making it potentially more attractive than Bitcoin itself at current levels.
Michael Saylor's Bitcoin Bet Shrinks MSTR Market Cap By $18B
Strategy Inc., led by Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, remains the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin.
Its market capitalization has dropped from over $45 billion to about $27 billion, tracking Bitcoin's decline and waning retail enthusiasm.
The firm's net asset value (mNAV) premium has nearly disappeared, reflecting reduced leverage to Bitcoin upside.
Thielen, who had previously been bearish, said the "washed-out" sentiment and upcoming catalysts could mark the start of a recovery cycle.
Technical Breakdown Tests $260 Support Zone
MSTR Price Analysis (Source: TradingView)
On the charts, MSTR is testing a crucial support zone near $260, sitting at the lower boundary of a symmetrical triangle that has constrained price action since mid-2025.
The 20-day EMA at $297 and 50-day EMA at $320 now act as overhead resistance, while the 200-day EMA at $338 caps the broader downtrend.
A decisive break below $260 could open the path toward $240–$230, levels last seen before its 2024 rally.
The Supertrend indicator has flipped bearish near $310, adding pressure on buyers to defend this level.
Conversely, a move back above $305–$320 could signal recovery and reestablish the bullish trajectory toward $350 and $387 Fibonacci resistance.
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