Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) tapped $105,000 before retreating back below $104,000 on Wednesday, reigniting debate among traders over whether the rally has more fuel or is nearing its peak.
Morgan Stanley Warns Investors To "Harvest Gains'
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) strategist Denny Galindo said Bitcoin has entered its "fall season" — a time to secure profits before winter.
Speaking on the bank's Crypto Goes Mainstream podcast, Galindo compared Bitcoin's market rhythm to the four seasons.
He noted that the cycle follows a three-up, one-down pattern, suggesting potential downside after strong multi-year rallies.
"We are in the fall season right now," Galindo said.
"Fall is the time for harvest, when investors should take gains before the next winter begins." he added
Galindo's seasonal analogy highlights how major Wall Street institutions are formalizing crypto cycle analysis alongside commodities and macro assets.
Institutional Adoption Strengthens Despite Volatility
Michael Cyprys, head of U.S. brokers and asset managers research at Morgan Stanley, said institutional interest remains strong despite volatility.
He said some investors view Bitcoin as digital gold and a hedge against inflation or monetary debasement.
"Spot ETFs have made access easier, though the debate continues," Cyprys said.
He added that large investors move slower because of internal risk reviews and portfolio mandates, but adoption keeps rising.
Cyprys pointed out that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs now manage over $137 billion, while Ether ETFs hold about $22.4 billion.
Bitcoin Tests Trendline Resistance Near $110,000
BTC Technical Analysis (Source: TradingView)
On the charts, Bitcoin trades above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement near $105,000 after defending the $102,900–$103,000 support area.
The daily structure shows BTC pressing against a descending trendline drawn from the late-October high near $116,000.
A decisive break above this barrier would target the $109,300–$110,900 zone, aligning with the 100-day EMA and prior supply region.
Sustained closes above $110,000 could confirm a short-term reversal and open room toward $114,400–$116,200.
The EMA cluster between $106,600 and $109,800 forms a critical resistance zone that defines near-term momentum.
Rejection here could pull Bitcoin back toward the 200-day EMA near $107,970 or deeper into $102,900 support.
Momentum Builds But Confirmation Lags
The Supertrend indicator still prints a sell bias below $114,492, showing the broader uptrend remains corrective.
However, rising volume on recent green candles indicates stronger buying interest as price consolidates.
A clean breakout above that neckline could trigger a move toward $120,000, matching the 1.0 Fibonacci extension.
Further strength may extend the rally toward $126,800, the 1.618 extension of the previous wave.
Failure to hold above $105,000, however, risks a retest of $102,000–$100,000 and delays any breakout confirmation.
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