Tom Lee Says Crypto Will Do Well In December Thanks To Fed: 'The Odds Favor A Cut'

Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) is down 3% on Friday, even as Tom Lee said a December rate cut could revive risk markets into year-end.

Lee Expects December Rate Cut To Lift Risk Assets

Lee said the Federal Reserve's upcoming December policy meeting will directly influence risk markets. 

He called it a "monetary policy decision in December" that affects "both stocks and crypto because that's a risk-on measure."

He added that "the odds favor a cut," and said that a rate cut "will help inject confidence… another reason to expect stocks and crypto to do well into year-end."

His remarks reflect a straightforward macro view, i.e., easing financial conditions tends to lift high-beta assets, such as Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), Ethereum, and equity sectors tied to digital markets.

Ethereum Slips Under Major EMAs As Sellers Stay Active

ETH Price Action (Source: TradingView)

Ethereum's daily structure has deteriorated since mid-October, with the token now trading below its 20-, 50-, and 100-day EMAs. 

The stacked resistance zone between $3,564 and $3,843 has acted as a firm ceiling, and each retest of the descending trendline from the September peak has drawn sharp rejection.

The most recent fade from the $3,360–$3,400 region shows limited demand, and the market continues to treat every bounce as an opportunity to exit positions. 

A loss of the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $3,346 adds pressure, pushing ETH toward the $3,060–$3,120 demand shelf that has repeatedly served as the final support layer in prior drawdowns.

Momentum Indicators Lean Bearish As Seasonality Turns Negative

ETH Monthly Returns (Source: Coinglass)

The RSI remains anchored near 34 with no bullish divergence forming. 

November often trends positive for Ethereum, but this year resembles one of its deeper historical November drawdowns. 

December also carries a negative median return, placing ETH in a vulnerable position as it approaches a historically weak period with deteriorating structure.

Key Levels Traders Are Watching Into December

If ETH loses the $3,060–$3,120 zone, the next liquidity pocket sits between $2,800 and $2,600. 

This area aligns with a full retracement of the previous rally and holds several volume-weighted nodes that often attract high-time-frame buyers.

A meaningful recovery requires ETH to reclaim $3,346, break the descending trendline, and close above the $3,650–$3,820 region where all major EMAs converge. 

Without this shift, traders expect continued downside pressure.

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