Dollar General Corporation (NYSE:DG) and Dollar Tree Inc (NASDAQ:DLTR) could offer insights into consumer shopping trends amid tariffs and inflation when the companies report third-quarter financial results this week.
Dollar General reports earnings results on Thursday before the market opens. Dollar Tree reports earnings results on Wednesday before the market opens.
Here are the earnings estimates, what experts are saying ahead of the reports and key items to watch.
Earnings Estimates
Analysts expect Dollar Tree to report third-quarter revenue of $4.70 billion, down from $7.57 billion in last year's third quarter, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
Last year's results include the revenue from Family Dollar, which the company sold earlier this year.
Dollar Tree has beaten analyst estimates for revenue in four straight quarters and in seven of the last 10 quarters overall.
Analysts expect Dollar Tree to report third-quarter earnings per share of $1.08, down from $1.12.
The company has beaten analyst estimates for earnings per share in four straight quarters and in six of the last 10 quarters overall.
Analysts expect Dollar General to report third-quarter revenue of $10.64 billion, up from $10.18 billion in last year's third quarter.
The company has beaten analyst estimates for revenue in five of the last 10 quarters, including in the most recently reported second quarter.
Analysts expect Dollar General to report third-quarter earnings per share of 95 cents, up from 89 cents per share.
The company has beaten analyst estimates for earnings per share in three straight quarters and in six of the last 10 quarters overall.
What Experts Are Saying About Dollar General
Expectations for the discount retailer could be elevated heading into earnings, Piper Sandler analyst Peter Keith said in a new investor note.
The analyst maintained a Neutral rating on Dollar General with a price target of $108.
Keith said spending from lower-income consumers may have slowed down for the retailer in the third quarter. The analyst said the government shutdown and SNAP benefits being impacted may have hurt the company's revenue in the fourth quarter, which could impact guidance for the fourth quarter.
"We believe this limits DG upside to FY25 guidance," Keith said.
The analyst estimates that around 5% of the company's sales are paid using SNAP.
On the flip side, Keith sees Dollar General gaining market share among higher-income consumers during the quarter.
Freedom Capital Markets Chief Market Strategist Jay Woods said Dollar General is leaning on strong store traffic growth, which could help same-store sales in the third quarter.
"Last quarter they noted their average basket size is growing, and management recently raised its full-year outlook," Woods said in a weekly newsletter.
The market expert said price action on Dollar General stock could be "quite telling" heading into earnings. Woods said the stock chart shows several bullish items, and old highs could be challenged if shares run to $116.
"Look for shares to eclipse the $116 level on a positive report. It is clearly in a sector with strong relative strength and still has a lot to reverse."
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What Experts Are Saying About Dollar Tree
Traffic at Dollar Tree could be a challenge in the third quarter, Keith said in a new investor note.
The analyst maintained a Neutral rating on Dollar Tree with a price target of $117.
Keith expects the company to meet analyst expectations for the quarter and reiterate existing guidance.
"Think it's possibly management speaks to a sluggish Q4 QTD in part due to SNAP headwinds," Keith said.
Price checks by the analyst at Dollar Tree stores showed prices higher than Walmart, which could see consumers looking elsewhere when shopping.
Keith said the impact from tariffs could ramp up in the second half of 2025 for Dollar Tree, with the potential for an offset through higher prices for consumers with some items marked as $1.50 and $1.75.
Woods said Dollar Tree's decision to sell off Family Dollar could continue to benefit the company and shareholders.
"DLTR is starting to see the benefits of its sale of Family Dollar. Divesting that unit for quite a loss seems to have removed a drag on their overall business and cleared the way for a leaner, more focused discount-retail model," Woods said.
Key Items to Watch
One of the big items to watch in the earnings reports for Dollar General and Dollar Tree will be market share and commentary about gains or losses versus peers.
Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) has gotten more aggressive with its grocery offerings and items priced under $5, moves that could see consumers choosing the larger companies over discount retailers.
Amazon launched Amazon Grocery, which has over 1,000 food items and many items priced under $5.
Amazon said its private-label brands had momentum in 2024, with customers buying 15% more private-brand products than in the previous year.
Customers will often trade down from brand-name products to private-label to save on their grocery costs.
A report from Placer.ai shows that both Dollar General and Dollar Tree saw year-over-year increases in visits during the third quarter.
The report found Dollar General visits up 4.9% year-over-year in the third quarter, outperforming visit gains of 2.1% and 4.3% in the first and second quarters, respectively.
For Dollar Tree, third-quarter visits were up 4.3% year over year, below the 5.5% and 12.7% growth in the first and second quarters, respectively.
The weaker visit growth could indicate that Dollar Tree is more impacted in the third quarter than Dollar General.
For fourth-quarter guidance, Dollar General could also be in better shape. The report found that Dollar General’s visits grew 6.0% year over year in October, compared with Dollar Tree’s 2.8% year-over-year growth.
Dollar General, Dollar Tree Stock Price Action
Dollar General stock trades at $109.60 versus a 52-week trading range of $66.43 to $117.95. Dollar General shares are up 44.9% year-to-date in 2025.
Dollar Tree stock trades at $108.94 versus a 52-week trading range of $61.80 to $118.06. Dollar Tree shares are up 42.5% year-to-date in 2025.
With shares trading in similar ranges and year-to-date gains, this week’s earnings reports and guidance could separate which discount retailer Wall Street prefers heading into 2026.
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