20-WEEKS OF RESISTANCE PENETRATED
BULLISH SENTIMENT ESCALATING (a danger)*... but
OVERBOUGHTNESS (MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR) IN NEUTRAL
STILL MORE TO GO... METHINKS
SHORT SQUEEZE COULD FIRE
Ok, so we have now broke-out through the significant overhead resistance in the major indexes as I predicted and the 50-day and 200-day moving are now behind us (support) and sloping up.
Much like in last Monday's study I believe there is more upside based on the sentiment overview (that's escalating, but not at excessive levels) and overbought / oversoldness that's in neutral. Also, discerning overviews of bullish / bearish configurations of leading stocks indicate a still bullish set-up. The reverse head and shoulders “bottom” are still operational. And importantly, "price" looks to be ready to sail through a trading void created by the abrupt downstroke that ripped off 140 S&P 500 (NASDAQ:
SPX) points in the first week of May. There is minimal resistance in such fortuitous setups.
Key bond market data points like the Ted Spread** and the Barron's Confidence Index*** also continue with "all-clear" readings.
The former stiff resistance and now key support in the (
SPX) is at 1128 / 1131. Short term trendline support in the S&P 500 (
SPX) is 1147. More robust price support is at 1139 then 1124 and 1110. 200-day moving average support in the (
SPX) is 1117. The deepest support lows are the July lows at 1011.
The next major price (and trendline) resistance at the (
SPX) top of 1174. The recovery high (and what will be most important resistance) is at (
SPX) 1219.80 was visited on April 23rd.
** The Ted Spread a gauge of bank cash availability that's the difference between what banks (3-month Libor) and the Treasury pay to borrow money for three months bills was at 14.94 basis points today, after reaching of 14 basis points, the lowest tic since April. In early & mid March it dropped to a healthy post of just above 10. But by June 10 it ran up to 48 in the Euro / Greek panic. The Ted Spread 2008's high (the height of the global credit crisis) of 464 points was in October 2008. It averaged 37 basis points in 2006.
Key indicators and metrics:
· Friday's McClellan Oscillator is at a neutral plus 36
· The Treasury 10-year yield 2.57%
· 3-month $ LIBOR slides deeper to 0.289
· CBOE Put / Call Exchange Volume Ratio – 0.84
· (
VIXJOBS) $38.32 up from $36.01 last week.
Incredible chart (weekly and daily) (
JOBS) is continuing to move up on skyscrapers of volume. Now a bit extended, so buy on a pull-back. The company provides integrated human resource services to employers and job seekers primarily in the Peoples Republic of China. Market cap $1.06 billion. http://www.51job.com
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