Santa Rally Looms: These 5 Stocks Often Deliver Gifts To Investors

Year-end trading on Wall Street follows a familiar pattern, and the same question resurfaces once again: will the Santa Claus rally make an appearance?

The stretch between Christmas and the first trading days of January is historically known for the Santa Claus rally, a period when stocks have typically pushed higher amid lighter volumes, tax-driven trades and year-end optimism.

It's a pattern that's been debated, dismissed, and rediscovered for decades, yet the numbers keep pulling investors back in.

S&P 500's Santa Rally Track Record

According to Seasonax, which analyzed 95 years of S&P 500 data, the Santa Rally has been surprisingly consistent. Between Dec. 20 and Jan. 4, the S&P 500 rose 75.79% of the time, posting an average gain of 1.7%.

That's 72 advances versus just 23 declines across nearly a century of market history.

Some years have been memorable. The strongest Santa Rally on record came in 1991, when the S&P 500 climbed nearly 8% between Dec. 20 and Jan. 6, 1992.

On the downside, losses have generally been limited — excluding the exceptional 8% drop between 1931 and 1932, this period has never seen declines greater than 3.8%.

Dig a little deeper, and another question emerges: are there certain stocks that tend to enjoy an extra lift when Santa Claus arrives on Wall Street?

5 Stocks To Watch During The Rest Of December

Looking at the past 20 years, Seasonax data highlights five stocks that have more often than not delivered holiday gifts during the second half of December, using a trading window from Dec. 16 through Dec. 31.

1. Illumina Inc. (NASDAQ:ILMN) has been one of the most consistent. The stock posted gains in 17 of the past 20 years, translating to an 85% winning rate and an average return of 4% during the period.
   
2. Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT) follows closely behind with an 80% winning rate and an average gain of 1.25%. While the pattern broke in 2024, when shares fell 4.3%, Caterpillar had delivered a Santa rally in each of the prior 14 years, underscoring just how persistent the trend has been historically.
   
3. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) has also shown notable strength, rising in 15 of the past 20 years with an average return of 1.89%. The bank is currently riding a three-year winning streak into the end of December.
   
4. Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) stands out for its upside potential. While its 70% winning rate is not among the highest, the stock has delivered some eye-catching moves — including three double-digit late-December surges over the past two decades: +11.2% in 2014, +13.95% in 2017, and +11.28% in 2020. Its average return during the window sits at 3.54%.
   
5. Rounding out the list is Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:GS), which posted gains in 13 of the last 20 years, producing a 65% winning rate and an average return of 2.69% during the Santa rally window.

Of course, seasonality is not a guarantee, markets can still deliver coal when expectations run high. But as history shows, Santa has been surprisingly punctual over the long run.

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