Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has flashed another death cross, but historical data suggests the signal has more often appeared near market lows than the start of prolonged declines.
Why This Death Cross Is Triggering Anxiety
The latest signal comes from Bitcoin's 50-day moving average slipping below its 200-day moving average, a technical pattern widely labeled a "death cross."
The setup has resurfaced at a time when price momentum has cooled and macro uncertainty remains elevated.
Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, said he has been fielding growing concern from clients about the signal and responded by laying out historical context in a post on X.
History Shows Death Crosses Are Lagging
Sigel reviewed every Bitcoin death cross dating back to 2011 and described the indicator as a lagging signal rather than a forward-looking warning.
According to his analysis, the median return following a death cross has been positive more often than not.
Across all instances since 2011, Bitcoin's median return six months after a death cross was about 30%, while the 12-month median gain was roughly 89%, with positive outcomes occurring around 64% of the time.
Market Regime Matters More Than The Signal
The key distinction, Sigel noted, is the broader market regime.
Death crosses that appeared near cycle bottoms often marked periods when selling pressure had already peaked and price was stabilizing.
Examples include 2011, 2015, 2020, and 2023, all of which were followed by strong recoveries.
In those cases, six-month returns ranged from +75% to +173%, and 12-month gains reached as high as +812% during the Covid bottom.
In contrast, in periods such as 2014, 2018, and 2022, the death cross showed up before selling was finished, with forced liquidations and balance-sheet stress still pushing prices lower.
Post-ETF Era Changes The Context
The most recent historical comparison comes from 2024, which Sigel labeled the "post-ETF regime."
During that period, Bitcoin posted gains of about 58% over the next six months and roughly 94% over 12 months.
That environment differed from earlier cycles, with ETF-related demand and institutional flows playing a larger role in price formation.
Bitcoin Technicals Align With A Bottoming Phase, Not A Fresh Breakdown
BTC Price Action By TradingView
Bitcoin has already absorbed the bulk of selling pressure, and the crossover is printing after a 30%+ drawdown, not ahead of one.
BTC is trading below the 50-day and 200-day averages, but the distance between price and short-term averages is no longer widening, a common early signal of downside exhaustion.
If selling resumes, the next area where buyers are statistically likely to respond sits near $75,000 to $77,000, where prior demand and untested liquidity align.
The bias would only improve if Bitcoin breaks and holds above the descending trendline and reclaims the $92,000 to $95,000 region.
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