Alaska Airlines Boeing 737-800 airplane at San Jose airport (SJC) in California.

Alaska Air Talks Up Demand, But Issues Cautious Profit Outlook

Alaska Air Group, Inc. (NYSE:ALK) on Thursday reported mixed fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results. The company reported sales growth of 3% year over year (Y/Y) to $3.63 billion, which slightly missed the street view of $3.64 billion.

Details

Fourth-quarter revenue delivered a 0.6% year-over-year increase in RASM (operating Revenue per Available Seat Mile), despite a temporary demand slowdown caused by the government shutdown in November, the company said.

The company reported adjusted EPS of 43 cents, compared with guidance of 10 cents and a consensus estimate of 12 cents.

Corporate travel rose 9% Y/Y, with strong close-in demand sustaining momentum in the fourth quarter as bookings and yields rebounded from earlier challenges.

Also, diverse revenue streams performed well, with premium revenue up 7%, cargo revenue up 22%, and loyalty revenue up 12% year over year.

The company repurchased 0.7 million shares for around $30 million in the fourth quarter, bringing total repurchases to $570 million in 2025.

As of December 31, cash and cash equivalents stood at $627 million.

Other Key Metrics

The Seattle-based company disclosed capacity (available seat miles) growth of 2.2% Y/Y, and operating revenue per available seat miles (RASM) increased by 0.6% Y/Y in the quarter.

Unit costs, excluding fuel, freighter costs, and special items, rose 1.3% Y/Y, better than the company’s expectations on cost control initiatives. The economic fuel price per gallon came in at $2.57 in the fourth quarter, reflecting higher West Coast refining prices. 

During the quarter, Alaska Air opened bookings for new Seattle–London and Seattle–Rome routes, starting in spring 2026. The company also expanded international sales, offering transactions in six currencies and launching Japanese, Korean, and Italian-language websites to boost overseas bookings.

Outlook

The company said that the bookings in early January 2026 are up versus last year, with several record days, driving first-quarter managed corporate revenues 20% higher Y/Y.

Alaska Air expects strong unit revenues, with EPS roughly flat, continuing sequential earnings improvement.

The company projects capacity (available seat miles) growth of 2% to 3% for fiscal 2026 and up 1% to 2% for the first quarter of fiscal 2026.

Alaska Air expects adjusted EPS of $3.50-$6.50 for fiscal 2026 (versus consensus of $5.26).

For the first quarter of 2026, the company expects adjusted loss per share of $1.50 to $0.50, versus the street view of a loss of 50 cents.

The company says it continues to expect to deliver EPS of $10 and $1 billion in incremental profit by 2027.

Boeing Lands Massive Alaska Airlines Deal

In January 2026, the company placed Alaska’s largest-ever fleet order, committing to 105 Boeing 737-10 jets and five Boeing 787 aircraft, with options for 35 more 737-10s. The deal will grow its fleet to about 475 aircraft by 2030 and more than 550 by 2035.

ALK Price Action: Alaska Air shares were down 1.04% at $48.35 during premarket trading on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Image by Markus Mainka via Shutterstock

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