The legendary hall of fame catcher, Yogi Berra, made famous the following quote from Danish Nobel laureate, Niels Bohr, "it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future."  

An article written by Sam Taube for NerdWallet, explains, A key principle of fairness in financial markets is that all participants should have access to the same information, at least in theory. If some participants have special access to nonpublic insider information about a market, or have control over events that could affect the market, then they could use that to manipulate the market at the expense of other participants.

Insider trading laws attempt to prohibit this kind of behavior in the stock market, but there are no such laws regulating prediction markets yet — at least in the United States. As a result, prediction market bettors run the risk getting swindled by betting on “uncertain” future events against people who are actually certain about what is going to happen. The recent Middle East news has shined a spotlight on this issue as well.

In mid-February 2026, Israeli authorities accused two people of using classified information to place bets on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market. Israeli broadcaster Kan News previously reported on government investigations into Polymarket bets related to the last round of U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran in 2025.

And in late February 2026 six new accounts were opened and funded on Polymarket, and placed large "yes" bets on the question "U.S. strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?" The accounts netted more than $1.2 million in profits after the strikes began, raising further suspicions that insiders with connections to one of the militaries involved in this conflict are profiting from prediction markets related to it.

Remember, in the markets, money is never created nor destroyed, it's simply transferred.

After reading this, why would anyone think they are playing on a level, fair and open field or better yet, stand a fighting chance at making money? Do you think this is why Wall St is getting into the prediction markets? That was a rhetorical question BTW.

People have said to me over my 38 years in the business, "the stock market is rigged," and while I would disagree with them, I will admit it is tilted in the house's favor which is why my partner and I have never bought any products they push for our clients, only individual stocks and bonds along with a few index ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) and money market funds for free cash balances.

Full disclosure, I am not an expert on the prediction markets and I will never be one but I can assure you, most people playing in them aren't either. As Yogi once said, "The future ain't what it used to be."

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Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.