STRC Below $100 Is The Core Problem

STRC closed Thursday at $95.42 with $10.5 billion in total notional outstanding. A price below $100 means investors demand higher returns, forcing Strategy to raise dividends and increasing cash obligations tied to its Bitcoin-backed balance sheet.

“Strategy’s levered business model is under pressure, and this has increased the volatility for the BTC market as a whole,” Pandl wrote. 

“We think that Strategy, which historically has been a net buyer of BTC, will have a limited ability to accumulate more tokens at current share prices for both STRC and MSTR,” he added.

Saylor Calls It Capital Rotation, Schiff Calls It Collapse

The debate over what is actually happening split sharply on Thursday.

Saylor posted on X that Bitcoin ETFs have seen roughly $4 billion in outflows since May 14 due to AI stocks absorbing historic capital at $400 billion over six months. 

“This is a capital rotation, not a Bitcoin impairment,” Saylor wrote. “Volatility creates opportunity.”

Schiff pushed back immediately. “This isn’t volatility, it’s a collapse in price as investors dump Bitcoin to avoid larger losses or to seek out better investment opportunities. It’s a rejection of your entire thesis,” he posted.

The Kobeissi Letter added context, noting MSTR now carries its biggest unrealized loss in history at $10.8 billion, down 17% on its Bitcoin position after six years of buying. 

The S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY) returned 116% over the same period. Meanwhile, MSTR stock is down 77% from its July 2025 record high.

MSTR Chart Shows Death Cross With Key Support At $118.50

MSTR trades 38.9% below its 200-day SMA with the October 2025 death cross still active.

MACD sits below its signal line with a negative histogram, confirming momentum is fading. Key support sits at $118.50 where buyers previously stepped in. 

A break below that level opens a move toward the 52-week low at $104.17.

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