RBC Says Biogen Can Move 10% After BIIB-037 Data Is Revealed

Biogen Inc BIIB is down 3 percent on Friday after commentary from Cowen. Analyst Eric Schmidt suggested investors not play the company's upcoming AAIC data reveal centered on Aducanumab, scheduled for July 22, due to a lack of conviction.

It didn't take long for RBC's trading desk to respond.

In a note circulating among traders, the firm said it believes "the primary reason for the action is due to a competitor report that relates to a bit more cautious/balanced tone on upcoming Alzheimer's data," though Cowen was not specifically mentioned.

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RBC admitted new placebo data could change the overall outlook for Biogen's drug, but added it's not a new idea. "In addition, the company hasn't presented in public in almost two months so there haven't been any comments by the company," the firm added.

Expectations

It's thought the market is expecting a 40 to 50 percent chance of success for Aducanumab. Schmidt's note said he sees a 60 to 70 percent range if AAIC data impresses investors, and a 20 percent mark if it whiffs. He said these numbers in turn give Biogen stock a possibility of swinging $50 in either direction.

RBC puts the probability of Aducanumab success at 65 percent, but warns, "we won't know that for a while as Phase III is just starting." In its eyes, Biogen could move $38 to $39 in either direction after the data release -- a 10 percent swing.