How Has GoPro Stock Historically Reacted To Earnings?

• Wall Street is expecting EPS of $0.29 from GoPro Inc GPRO when it reports Wednesday afternoon.
• History suggests shareholders could be in for a big move.
• GoPro’s shares have declined by 55.2 percent over the past year.

GoPro shareholders are gearing up for Q3 earnings due out on Wednesday afternoon after the market closes. Here’s a rundown of what investors can expect from earnings and from GoPro’s stock on Thursday.

Earnings Projections

According to Estimize, consensus Wall Street earnings expectations for GoPro are EPS of $0.29 on revenue of $438.0 million. These projections represent a 141 percent year-over-year earnings jump and a 56.4 percent jump in revenue.

Earnings History

If history is any indication, it’s likely that GoPro shareholders could be in for a wild ride on Thursday. GoPro has had only five quarterly earnings reports in its brief public history, and the stock has experienced one-day post-earnings moves of at least 12.6 percent following four out of the five reports.

In fact, the average magnitude of GoPro’s one-day trading move following earnings has been 10.8 percent.

Unfortunately for traders looking for a quick profit, the direction of the moves has been hard to predict. Despite the huge volatility, GoPro has made two up moves and three down moves for an overall one-day earnings return of only -0.5 percent.

Unpredictable Volatility

For traders looking to play only the post-earnings volatility by making spread bets, GoPro’s Q2 earnings demonstrated that even post-earnings volatility itself is unpredictable. After four consecutive double-digit post-earnings moves, GoPro traded down only -0.5 percent following Q2 earnings, causing pain for both call and put holders.

For now, traders are watching and waiting to see if Q3 earnings will usher in a return of GoPro’s post-earnings volatility.

Disclosure: the author holds no position in the stocks mentioned.