Black Friday Discounts By Retailers: 2015 Vs. 2016

Following its retail channel checking, Wedbush said Black Friday's importance is paling in significance, as reflected by higher promotions year-over-year and slowing in-store traffic. Analyst Morry Brown presented the promotions offered by companies in 2016 compared to what was offered in 2015.

Chico's FAS, Inc. CHS

• Chico's: 40 percent off purchase, 45 percent off for members in 2016 vs. 40 percent off entire boutique, 45 percent off for members in 2015.
• White House Black Market: 30 percent off full-price and additional 40 percent off clearance in 2016 vs. 30 percent off entire purchase in 2015.

Coach Inc COH

• 30 percent off purchase in 2016 vs. 20 percent off up to $250, 25 percent off for $250–$500, 30 percent off for over $500 in 2015.

Express, Inc. EXPR

• 30 percent off entire purchase until noon and 40 percent off everything in both 2016 and 2015.

Francesca's Holdings Corp FRAN

• 30 percent off everything in both 2016 and 2015.

Gap Inc GPS

• Banana Republic: 50 percent off five full-priced items in 2016 vs. 40 percent off your purchase, 50 percent off all sweaters, accessories, shoes and long-sleeve tees in 2015.
• Gap: 50 percent off everything in 2016 vs. 60 percent off entire purchase before 10 a.m. and 50 percent off entire purchase in 2015.
• Old Navy: 50 percent off entire purchase, both in 2016 and 2015.

Kate Spade & Co KATE

• 30 percent off everything, surprise sale of up to 75 percent off between November 22 and 26 in 2016 vs. 25 percent off everything and surprise sales of up to 75 percent off between November 24 and 28.

L Brands Inc LB

• Victoria's Secret: 50 percent off all sports bras, bralettes and select bras in 2016 vs. BOGO 50 percent off all bras in 2015.

Urban Outfitters, Inc. URBN

• Anthropologie: 30 percent off each and every item in 2016 vs. 25 percent off each and every item in 2015.
• Free People: 50 percent off most loved items and additional 25 percent off clearance in 2016 vs. 60 percent off entire purchase before 10 a.m. and 50 percent off entire purchase in 2015.
• Urban Outfitters: BOGO 50 percent off all apparel and additional BOGO 50 percent off clearance in 2016 vs. additional 30 percent off clearance and additional 40 percent off clearance for members.

Wedbush's Bottom Line

Wedbush noted based on third-party research that the net sales on Black Friday slipped 10.4 percent, with a 5 percent drop in in-store sales and 7.9 percent decline in transactions. The firm attributed the drop in in-store sales to extended promotional environment seen since Tuesday and stronger online sales. While noting that promotions increased, the firm said it expects margins to be fine for the fourth quarter, as cleaner inventories obviates year-end markdowns.

Among softlines, the firm noted that Urban Outfitters ran deeper promotions and L Brands' Victoria's Secret also ran deeper promotions and markdowns. However, the firm believes traffic remained strong for these.

Wedbush termed Kate the "traffic winner" relative to handbag peers over Black Friday weekend, as its storewide promotional percentage was modestly higher than last year and it ran a surprise sale. The firm is of the view that Michael Kors Holdings Ltd KORS was the laggard among with handbag retailers, with minimal response to tiered promotion.

At last check, the SPDR S&P Retail (ETF) XRT was down 0.07 percent at $46.04. Over the past five trading days, the ETF is up 1.66 percent, and over the past month, it's up 9.33 percent. Year-to-date, XRT is up 6.52 percent.