The 'Great Wait' Economy: Jobs Data Paints Unique Picture, Analyst Says

It is usually considered good news when businesses are hiring instead of firing, but they aren’t doing either, according to an analyst.

“We’re stuck in the ‘great wait’ economy,” Callie Cox, chief marketing strategist with Ritholtz Wealth Management, wrote on X on Monday.

“Companies aren’t hiring or firing. People aren’t leaving their jobs or making big financial decisions.”

Cox wrote in her newsletter “Optimist Callie” that only 2% of American workers have quit their jobs, while 81% of workers aged 25 to 54 years old have a job.

“We seem to be at the point where rates are high enough and the economic outlook is dour enough that both average Americans and corporate America have decided to do nothing,” she said.

Unemployment fell from 4.3% in July to 4.2% in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. Inflation is at 2.5% as the Federal Reserve is expected to the key interest rate ranging from 5.25% to 5.5% by either 25 or 50 basis points when in meets on Sept. 18.

“This particular economic state isn't necessarily bad,” Cox said.

Read Also: Job Creation Falls Short Of Expectations In August, Unemployment Rate Ticks Lower, Wage Growth Soars

“It's not the desperate penny-pinching or job-slashing you typically see in a recession. People are still employed and earning money at a pace noticeably faster than inflation.”

She said employers are finding ways to do more with the workers that they have, and the Fed believes rates need to be two percentage points lower than they are now to entice consumers to spend and businesses to hire.

“How low rates need to go to pull America out of the great wait?” she wrote.

“Three percentage points of cuts would get us to the point where the current Fed funds rate is in line with price growth, as measured by personal consumption expenditures data.”

She also noted homebuyers are waiting for mortgage rates to go expectedly lower, having fallen from 8% last October to 6.4% currently, possibly making the waiting game last longer.

“We might be stuck in a vicious cycle, though. If enough of us delay big financial moves in hopes of lower rates down the road, we may never make it out of this rut,” she said.

“For what it's worth, Wall Street seems sick of waiting. They've skipped straight to the recession, punishing every economic report that looks somewhat ominous.”

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