Moderna Struggles With Declining Q4 COVID Vaccine Sales, Stock Slides

On Friday, Moderna Inc. MRNA reported a fourth-quarter EPS loss of $(2.91), missing the consensus of $(2.62), a turnaround from EPS income of $0.55 a year ago.

The COVID-19 vaccine maker reported quarterly sales of $966 million, down from $2.81 billion a year ago, beating the consensus of $942.8 million.

Net product sales for the fourth quarter of 2024 were $938 million, reflecting a 66% year-over-year decrease. This was primarily due to the earlier launch of the updated COVID-19 vaccine in the United States, which shifted sales into the third quarter.

Additionally, international sales were lower than in 2023, reflecting the continued phase-out of advance purchase agreements.

The company reported $923 million in Spikevax (COVID-19 vaccine) sales in the fourth quarter of 2024, which includes $244 million in U.S. sales and $679 million in international sales. Spikevax sales for the full year 2024 were $3.1 billion.

In January, Moderna was awarded a tender to supply the European Union with its mRNA COVID-19 vaccine. Under the agreement, Moderna can provide the vaccine in several formats for up to four years.

For the fourth quarter, Moderna reported $15 million in mRESVIA (Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine) sales. mRESVIA sales for the full year 2024 were $25 million.

The cost of sales for the fourth quarter of 2024 was $739 million, which included third-party royalties of $45 million, inventory write-downs of $193 million, and wind-down costs of $259 million, including a non-cash charge of $238 million related to the termination of a contract manufacturing agreement.

Guidance: Moderna has reiterated its 2025 revenue outlook of $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion versus a consensus of $2.43 billion. Moderna expects revenue of approximately $0.2 billion in the first half of the year, reflecting the seasonality of its respiratory business.

“In 2025, we remain focused on driving sales, delivering up to 10 product approvals through 2027, and expanding cost efficiencies across our business. By the end of 2025, we aim to remove nearly $1 billion in costs. With strong momentum in our late-stage pipeline, we anticipate multiple approvals starting this year, along with key Phase 3 readouts that will support our long-term growth,” said Stéphane Bancel, Chief Executive Officer of Moderna.

The company expects the cost of sales to be approximately $1.2 billion, with R&D expenses anticipated to be approximately $4.1 billion.

Capital expenditures for 2025 are expected to be approximately $0.4 billion, and year-end cash and investments for 2025 are projected to be approximately $6 billion.

Price Action: At last check on Friday, MRNA stock was down 3.70% to $30.46 during the premarket session.

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