Elon Musk 10 Years Ago Called Autonomous Driving 'A Solved Problem'—Said 'We Will Be There In A Few Years'

Elon Musk a decade ago confidently declared that self-driving technology was just around the corner. Speaking at an Nvidia NVDA conference on March 17, 2015, the Tesla TSLA CEO said, “I view it as a solved problem. We know exactly what to do and we will be there in a few years.” He even predicted that fully autonomous vehicles would become so common that human-driven cars might eventually be outlawed.

2015: The Bold Prediction

At the time, Musk claimed that Tesla would be the leader in self-driving technology and the first company to offer an autopilot feature to consumers. He argued that a car safer than a human driver was “much easier than you would think.” Nvidia, a key supplier of Tesla’s computing technology, was also optimistic about AI’s potential to revolutionize autonomous driving.

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2019: The ‘Appreciating Asset’ Claim

By 2019, Musk went even further, claiming Tesla vehicles would actually increase in value because of self-driving advancements. “If you buy a Tesla today, I believe you are buying an appreciating asset—not a depreciating asset,” he said. The idea was that Tesla would continuously raise the price of its Full Self-Driving software, making existing vehicles more valuable.

That hasn't happened. Instead, used Teslas are depreciating three times faster than the rest of the market. The FSD package, once promised as a game-changer, has seen multiple price cuts instead of steady increases.

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2024-2025: The Harsh Reality

Fast forward to today, and Musk has finally admitted that Tesla's current hardware isn't capable of delivering true self-driving. In the latest earnings call, he called it an “absolutely painful and difficult” realization, admitting that customers who bought FSD with Tesla's Hardware 3 will need upgrades to reach full autonomy.

Meanwhile, Musk has also revealed that some Tesla drivers turn off self-driving just to check their phones without annoying safety alerts. “Right now, there is this perverse situation where people actually go to manual driving to check their text messages so the computer doesn't yell at them,” he said. Some even steer with their knees to bypass the system's warnings.

Despite once insisting Tesla was just years away from true autonomy, Musk now says the company is taking a slow, step-by-step approach, rolling out an unsupervised robotaxi fleet in Austin, Texas this summer.

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On the other hand, one of the earliest investors in Tesla,Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management CEO Ross Gerber, recently made waves by saying, “My Tesla FSD is like a 12-year-old driving next to a Waymo.” 

Waymos working Santa Monica in scale now. Uber has got to be hurting from this. Everyone we talk to loves the Waymo experience. The cars drive with confidence in very difficult conditions. My tesla FSD is like a 12 year old driving next to a Waymo. $goog $tsla $uber

— Ross Gerber (@GerberKawasaki) March 2, 2025

The Broken Promise

Musk's predictions about autonomous driving have consistently fallen short. While he initially sold FSD as a feature that would transform Tesla vehicles into money-making robotaxis, the reality is far different. Many Tesla owners are still waiting for self-driving capabilities to match Musk's hype, and the company continues to face regulatory hurdles worldwide.

Musk has acknowledged that critics have called him the “boy who cried wolf several times” when it comes to autonomy. Now, he insists Tesla has built a “self-driving wolf.” But with mounting delays, price cuts, and drivers opting out of using FSD, the promise of a fully autonomous Tesla still feels just as far away as it did 10 years ago.

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