WHAT’S ON TAP?

For the week of June 19th (in conjunction with Econoday):

The Fed meets this week and will certainly set the tone for markets.  The turbulence in Europe almost guarantees that the Fed will remain on hold.  Aside from that the week will be heavy on housing data finishing up with GDP on Friday.

Monday – No market moving news.

Tuesday - Adobe (ADBE) reports after the bell.

FOMC Meeting Begins

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales 7:45 AM ET

Redbook 8:55 AM ET

Existing Home Sales 10:00 AM ET

Existing home sales in April posted a sharp 7.6 percent jump to a 5.77 million annual rate.  But, in a big disappointment, supply on the market jumped 11.5 percent to 8.4 months.  But at least for April, prices did firm, up 2.1 percent to a median $173,100.  Looking ahead, the settlement date for special tax credits has been extended to the end of June for contracts signed by the end of April.  This extension will help support existing home sales (based on closing) but most of the action probably has already taken place and we may see sales slip in May and months in the near term.  Based on purchase-only mortgage applications, which fell 27.1 percent for the month, sales are likely to drop in May.

Existing home sales Consensus Forecast for May 10: 6.20 million-unit rate

Wednesday -Nike (NKE) reports after the bell.

MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 AM ET

New Home Sales 10:00 AM ET

New home sales surged in April, up 14.8 percent to a 504,000 annual rate. New home sales are based on the contract signing date. With the deadline for closing to get special homebuyer tax credits extended to the end of June, April sales got some added lift.  But to get the special credits, contracts had to be signed by the end of April.   Based on purchase-only mortgage applications, which fell 27.1 percent for the month, sales are likely to drop in May.

New home sales Consensus Forecast for May 10: 400 thousand-unit annual rate

EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET

FOMC Meeting Announcement 2:15 PM ET

The FOMC announcement for the June 22-23 FOMC policy meeting is expected to leave the fed funds target rate unchanged.  With continued market skittishness over sovereign debt problems in Greece and other European countries, the Fed is likely to be cautious about plans for unwinding its expanded balance sheet.  Fed watchers likely will focus on statement wording regarding the status of the economy—notably any signs of labor market improvement.

FOMC Consensus Forecast for 6/23/10 policy vote on fed funds target range: unchanged at a range of zero to 0.25 percent

Thursday -Oracle (ORCL) reports after the bell.

Durable Goods Orders 8:30 AM ET

Durable goods orders in April surged a revised 2.8 percent after edging up 0.1 percent the month before.  The jump in the headline number was led by huge boost in the transportation component.  The swing was largely in civilian aircraft orders.  Excluding the transportation component, new durables orders slipped a revised 1.1 percent after a 4.9 percent spike in March.

New orders for durable goods Consensus Forecast for May 10: -0.5 percent

Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET

Initial jobless claims rose 12,000 in the June 12 week to 472,000 with the prior week revised 4,000 higher to 460,000. The four-week average slipped slightly to 463,500 but is still about 10,000 higher than the same time in May.  Continuing claims rose 88,000 in the June 5 week to 4.571 million, retracing about a third of the prior week’s big dip.

Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 6/19/10: 465,000

EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET

Friday –

GDP 8:30 AM ET

GDP growth for the first quarter was revised down to an annualized 3.0 pace from the initial estimate of 3.2 percent.  The overall revision was net many small changes and was not a result of a large change to any one component.  But there still is strength in a number of components compared to the fourth quarter and earlier.  Real PCEs growth is moderately strong while investment in equipment and software posted a healthy 12.7 percent boost. Inventory investment contributed to growth significantly.  However, net exports worsened as import gains outpaced improvement in exports. Nonresidential and residential structures both declined.  The GDP price index was revised up incrementally to 1.0 percent annualized from the initial estimate of 0.9 annualized.

Real GDP Consensus Forecast for third estimate Q1 10: +3.0 percent annual rate

GDP price index Consensus Forecast for third estimate Q1 10: +1.0 percent annual rate

Corporate Profits 8:30 AM ET

Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM ET

The Reuter’s/University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment index rose to 75.5 in the mid-June reading versus 73.6 for the final reading of May. The nearly two-point gain was sizable and put the index at its best level since the January 2008 figure of 78.4.  Gains were posted for both the current conditions and expectations components.

Consumer sentiment Consensus Forecast for final June 10: 75.5

Post Footer automatically generated by Add Post Footer Plugin for wordpress.