Why I Started TRW Automotive (TRW)

The auto stocks are going ballistic today - I'll take full credit as the reason.  Ahem.


I mentioned
TRW Automotive (TRW)
this morning... it had spectacular earnings.  
BorgWarner (BWA)
already reported an excellent quarter and
Magna International (MGA)
reports tonight after the bell.  
Ford (F)
 [




I don't know why TRW sold off yesterday on these superlative results... but I was glad to get in this AM.  There *is* a gap in the chart created by yesterday's jump; in a normal market I'd point it out and say be wary of the fill.  But right now I see hundreds of charts with unfilled gaps and stocks that are in parabolic runs above those gaps.




In terms of subsector - think of TRW Auto as focusing on safety.  Analysts had them in for a $0.78 EPS quarter on $3.15B in sales.   They did $1.47!  (on $3.4B in sales)


Their full year 2010 $4.91 estimate immediately goes up about 70 cents to $5.60 and the fourth quarter estimate of $0.85 looks like a joke.  If they can control commodity costs this is looking like a $6.00 year - frankly I could be conservative in that figure; $6.25 might be viable. Hence the stock trades at less than 10 forward .... again a very cyclical business so PE ratios somewhat useless.


[Full report
here
]


Via
Reuters
:



Guidance

  • TRW raised its full-year sales forecast to $14.1 billion from a range of $13.2 billion to $13.6 billion disclosed with its second-quarter earnings release. The 2010 forecast includes expectations for fourth-quarter sales of about $3.4 billion.

TRW is assuming a 11.8M run rate for 2010 in the US (18M units in Europe)

TRW Automotive products include integrated vehicle control and driver assist systems, braking systems, steering systems, suspension systems, occupant safety systems (seat belts and airbags), electronics, engine components, fastening systems and aftermarket replacement parts and services.

Long all names mentioned in fund; no personal position
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