Can Elon Musk's Acquisition Of Twitter Prevent World War T From Turning Into World War III?

World War T

A couple of years before gay marriage in America became legal in all fifty states via Obergefell v. Hodges, the journalist Steve Sailer presciently predicted that the next front in the culture war would be what he called “World War T”;

For awhile now, I’ve been predicting that the structure of the dominant contemporary mindset means that with the triumph of gay marriage, a need will be felt for a new front in the elite culture war on average people, with “transgenderism” (a catch-all phrase for a variety of complaints) the most likely salient. 

I must thank the New York Times for tirelessly generating new evidence that my prediction of World War T was on the money.

As often happens with Sailer’s ideas, this one emerged in the mainstream media years later, this time in a Tucker Carlson monologue about why we are risking World War III in the Ukraine War. More on that below.

World War T and World War III

In a previous post (“Elon Musk Tries To Prevent World War III”), I mentioned that one factor driving American elites’ urge to escalate our current proxy war with Russia was Vladimir Putin’s (and Russia’s) status as an ideological opponent. Putin’s opposition to World War T (although he didn’t use that phrase) was exemplified by this section of his September 21st speech:

That our proxy war with Russia in Ukraine is due in part to World War T was illustrated by Rep. Jamie Raskin’s (D-Maryland) press release last Tuesday. Raskin wrote it after 25 progressive House members who had called for negotiations with Russia walked back their modest call for peace the following day:

October 25, 2022

WASHINGTON, DC – Congressman Jamie Raskin today released the following statement.

“I am glad to learn of the withdrawal of the letter of October 24, 2022, which—because of its unfortunate timing and other flaws […]

“Moscow right now is a hub of corrupt tyranny, censorship, authoritarian repression, police violence, propaganda, government lies and disinformation, and planning for war crimes. It is a world center of antifeminist, antigay, anti-trans hatred, as well as the homeland of replacement theory for export. 

via Rep Raskin’s October 25th press release linked to above.

Tucker Carlson referred to Raskin’s press release in this monologue a couple of days later. Tucker noted that our “jihad” against Russia was leading to energy shortages both here and in Europe, and said this was in service to our “World War Trans”.

What This Has To Do With Twitter

Twitter is where today’s conventional wisdom gets molded and forged, and where (at least until Elon Musk’s takeover this week), the borders of the Overton window are set. More ominously, it’s where social contagions are incubated, such as the ludicrous dichotomy between Russia and Ukraine that Raskin presented in his press release.

This is dumb on its face. Russia is more diverse than the Ukraine, and has an ethnic minority (Tuvan) defense minister. They also have a (competent) woman central bank chief, and the Nazi collaborator Stepan Bandera is the national hero of Ukraine, not Russia.

— David Pinsen (@dpinsen) October 25, 2022

It’s worth remembering too, that the likely spark that spurred Musk to buy Twitter was Twitter suspending the Christian satirical site The Babylon Bee for a World War T joke: naming Admiral Levine (pictured below) as their Man of the Year.

This is the article that Twitter suspended The Babylon Bee for which led up to tonight’s great news. Would be a shame if it was shared again! https://t.co/wyv1ahpwVg

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) October 28, 2022

By taking over the world’s town square, Elon Musk has an opportunity to allow dissident voices to challenge the narrative promoted by World War T jihadists such as Rep. Raskin, and hopefully bring some sanity to our Ukraine policy before it leads to mushroom clouds. Let’s close with a brief market comment related to Twitter’s tech sector.

Twitter Buyout Ends An Eventful Week In Tech

The close of Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter ended an eventful week in tech, with disastrous earnings releases by both Facebook and Instagram parent Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) and Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN). As such, it’s worth reviewing our macro call from July, long energy, short Treasuries and tech:

Now on the homepage. Long energy, short Treasuries and tech. A hedged bet against tech in case we’re wrong.https://t.co/7APpuCTqDc$BOIL $GUSH $TMV $WEBS

— Portfolio Armor (@PortfolioArmor) July 20, 2022

Long Energy, Short Treasuries and Tech

Our system doesn’t consider the macro picture when selecting its top names. Instead, it gauges stock and options market sentiment to estimate which securities are likely to perform the best over the next six months. Nevertheless, that bottoms-up approach painted a fairly clear picture in our top ten names as of Tuesday’s close: 

• Long Energy: ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas BOIL, Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. Bull 2X Shares GUSH, Valero Energy Corp. VLO, Comstock Resources, Inc. CRK.
• Short Treasuries: Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares TMV, ProShares UltraPro Short 20+ Year Treasury TTT.
• Short Tech: Direxion Daily Dow Jones Internet Bear 3X Shares WEBS

Screen capture via Portfolio Armor on 7/19/2022.

Here’s how those top names exemplifying that macro take have performed since, as of Friday’s close: on average, they’re +11%, while the SPDR S&P 500 Trust (SPY) was -0.42%.

The best performers there were our short Treasury bets TMV and TTT, followed by energy names CRK and GUSH, while our short tech bet, WEBS was in negative territory after this week’s melt-up. We’ll see how long that lasts, given the headwinds of inflation, recession, and ongoing risk of further escalation in our conflicts with Russia, as well as with China over Taiwan.