Why The S&P 500 Is Still In An Uptrend!

There are so many traders and investors that think the market is in a downtrend, bear market, etc., and they may be right on a shorter time frame or using a specific definition, but when you look at the chart and draw a trendline, you can see that the market is still in an uptrend. SPY

That does not mean the current corrective wave is not fun for the bears.  We are looking at the potential of a larger macro ABC correction that may actually pull back to the macro upper trendline (UTL).  You can see, if we start the UTL from the Great Recession lows, this may be a larger wave 4, and it could make sense due to the Elliottwave guidelines of alternation.

You can see here, that the market has the potential to pull back to the low 3000s, and there are plenty of economic narratives that support that thesis for now.

We are watching recent quarterly highs for a breach to see if the bulls are ready to start a fresh wave up, and if wave B is not done yet, those levels could certainly be tested before what may be an impulsive wave down to the UTL over the next 2 years.

Future posts will analyze where price is in relation to this thesis and point out considerations along the way.

Here is a video with more explanation:

Dr. John