An ugly weekly close last week, dropping ES down to the bottom (to the tick) of the weekly bullish imbalance. This week has the makings to be an extremely important one moving forward, for a number of reasons. If there is no bounce back this week back to 4553, a weekly bearish imbalance will be formed, which will act as a resistance moving forward. Another reason is losing this level of support at 4498 leaves bulls vulnerable down to 4369, which is a previously tested and filled bullish imbalance from the week of June 12. Definitely an important spot for bulls to step in with CPI and PPI data comes to end this week.
NQ, like ES, with an ugly weekly close, fading below the weekly bullish imbalance from 3 weeks ago. It will be important for bulls to reclaim the loss, with only a weekly order block at 15331 in the way of what can be a pretty harsh fade. I have some levels below, but the closest unfilled bullish imbalance is down at 14400, which is 900 points lower...
On the daily, ES dipped into a discount (below 50% of the range) bullish imbalance. If there was a place for the market to bounce, I would like to see the market bounce from here. The next question for me is how much of a bounce?... With CPI and PPI later in the week, it's a toss up for me on what happens from there.
DXY with a perfect retracement into the premium (above 50% of the range) bearish imbalance and rejection to close out last week. To me, the ideal situation for bulls would be for a fade through the 50% level and down through the support level at 100.50 towards sellside at 99.57. For those bearish on the indices would want to see a bounce at the 50% level and run towards 103.57.
This is the move I am anticipating on BTC BTC/USD over the next few weeks. It could absolutely take more time to make this move but this is what would make the most sense to me. Discount bullish imbalance bounce into taking liquidity (swing high) and get into that resistance at 32600.
$SPY SPY finally found support following a massive meltdown to close out the week. Lots of resistance overhead, but I am looking into a retracement, which can be a big one due to the large range being set with Friday's sell off. From that point, I am undecided as it will likely be a data driven move imo.
A massive beat down Friday following ER on Thursday, is enough enough? Multiple resistance levels have been formed in the process, with sellside liquidity resting at 181.50. Even a retracement on AAPL AAPL can move it quite a bit with the large range created on Friday.
My 250 target from last week was tapped before running higher on Thursday, only to give it all back Friday afternoon. One level of support left before swing low at 250.50 and the next level of support down to 248. Lots of resistance created like the other names as well... Is enough enough?
GOOGL GOOGL held up despite most companies getting crushed on Friday. GOOGL is getting closer to discount (50% or less of the range) from that earnings move from 2 weeks ago. 123-125 is must defend territory for the bulls imo.
Following the earnings pump and dump, market structure shifted to the downside and concluded Friday with a retracement back into premium (above 50% of the range) and into the bearish imbalance in the .79 range. 112 is the next support level before the swing low of 107.38. Level to beat for bulls is 120.80!
Perfect OTE rejection at the .79 retracement of the swing range and took out the swing low to close the day. Bulls need to step up and take 19.30 or I see the bears being in charge for the time being. Earnings Monday AH!
Massive earnings move from Thursday on AMZN AMZN, which had been quiet for a few weeks leading into earnings. Swing low sits at 138. Like GOOGL, a retracement into discount doesn't seem crazy to me, but if we get the bounce I am expecting, the market is going to need AMZN to hold up.
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