Trump's Popularity Rises Among Black, Hispanic Voters: Early 2024 Polls Reveal

Recent polling data indicates that former President Donald Trump is gaining unexpected support from Black and Hispanic voters, hinting at a potential shift in future voting patterns within these communities.

What Happened: As reported by The Washington Post, several recent polls have shown increased support for Trump among Black and Hispanic voters in simulated matchups against President Joe Biden, putting them on almost equal footing, a situation rarely seen in their 2020 race.

Trump is currently averaging support from 20 percent of Black voters and 42 percent of Hispanic voters across five high-quality polls conducted in the past month. These numbers have the potential to set new records for a Republican in a presidential election. According to the Pew Research Center’s validated voter survey, Trump received 8 percent of the Black vote and 36 percent of the Hispanic vote in the 2020 election.

Over the past 50 years, no Republican presidential candidate has managed to secure close to 20 percent of the Black vote. The average share over the past 50 years is only 9 percent, roughly half of where Trump currently stands in the polls.

Although Hispanic voters have recently been leaning towards the GOP, the party’s highest achievements in the past 50 years were 37 percent in 1984 and a disputed 44 percent in 2004. Trump’s current standing in the polls outperforms these figures.

Despite these promising numbers for Trump, it’s important to remember that individual polls often contain small sample sizes of Black and Hispanic voters and these figures are aggregates of several surveys. Additionally, recent polls have a trend of overestimating the support these groups will eventually give to Republicans.

See Also: In Gaffe-filled Speech, Trump Issues Bold And Unusual Warning, Says Biden’s Re-Election Could Lead To ‘World War II’

Why It Matters: Regardless of these uncertainties, the polling data undeniably presents a worrying situation for Democrats, especially if the lower voter turnout among non-White voters seen in 2022 repeats in the future.

Earlier polls have shown Trump pulling even with Biden, indicating a potential rematch of the 2020 contest.

Polls have also indicated Biden trailing potential rivals, including Trump, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, and Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), further complicating the Democrats’ position.

This is not the first time Trump has gained on Biden's lead. Earlier in the month, Trump made slight gains on Biden’s lead.

Photo by Leonard Zhukovsky and Trevor Bexon on Shutterstock

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