Sluggish Retail Growth In China & More Headwinds For Hong Kong's Property Markets Drag Stocks Down

Stocks in Hong Kong and China closed the week out lower Friday as weak consumer sentiment and property market jitters resurfaced.

The Hang Seng Index ended a three-day winning streak to end down 2.2% at 17,813.45 while China’s CSI 300 Index closed 1.1% lower at 3,663.41.

Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) in China slowed to just half the expected amount, at 0.1%, while export growth slowed less than expected. The weakness in consumption demand hit consumer stocks Alibaba Group Holding Limited BABA and Tencent Holdings Limited TCEHY more than 3% in the Hong Kong trading session.

JD.com, Inc JD plunged 10% after Citigroup C, Daiwa Securities Group Inc DSECF and Jefferies Financial Group Inc JEF all cut price and revenue targets for the company citing slower-than-expected retail growth in China and rumors that a businessman with the same surname as the company’s Chairman had been arrested.

Consumer and asset prices are in a death-spiral now with deflation on the cards in mainland China, prompting stimulus proposals to shore up growth in the world’s second largest economy to have been sent to Beijing this week.

One such proposal that is reportedly being considered by policymakers is a multi-billion RMB fund that will buy up depressed stock prices. Lower equity prices in China are one of the main reasons for a lack in consumption confidence as households worry they will continue to have less money to spend, according to local reports.

In the property sector, Morgan Stanley MS analysts Praveen Choudhary and Jeffrey Mak revised previous estimates for the Hong Kong property market, calling their previous expectations for a rebound this year “too optimistic”. The bank says it now foresees a trifecta of declines in property prices on the island continuing from 2022 into this year and next.

Last year was one of the Hong Kong housing market’s worst on record, with declines of 16%. The bank’s analysts expect there to be another 5%-10% decline in 2024 in property values in Hong Kong on top of this year’s 10% fall. That will push about 5% of all mortgages into negative equity territory, according to Bloomberg Analytics data.  

Morgan Stanley downgraded Wharf Holdings Ltd. WARFF, a property development firm, to “underweight” from “overweight” and the property market overall to “in-line” from “attractive”. Wharf Holdings finished nearly 1% lower.

Sino-Ocean Group Holding Limited SIOLY became the latest in a long line of Chinese property developers to default on its bond repayments after asking its creditors to wait a further two months for scheduled interest payments Friday. The announcement follows a freezing of $4 billion of offshore debt by the company last month. Sino Ocean bucked the trend of most property developers, up 2.2%, as investors bet that the company’s creditors would approve the delay at the meeting next Monday.

Among other notable Hong Kong real estate stocks, Country Garden Holdings Limited CTRYF was 1.3% lower by the end of the day’s trading and beleaguered Sunac China Holdings Limited SNCNQ fell over 3%.

In IPOs, Bloomberg reported that Didi Global Inc DIDIY, China’s largest ride-hailing company, is planning a Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing in what is one of the exchange’s worst years for new listings in a decade and a half. The company has been buying back stock from former and current employees in preparation for the listing, according to insiders.