MARA Holdings Faces Mixed Analyst Sentiment: Revenue Miss And Conservative Forecasts Amid Bitcoin Rally

Bitcoin BTC/USD miner MARA Holdings, Inc. MARA shares are trading lower on Wednesday. Analysts expressed views on third-quarter earnings reported yesterday.

On Tuesday, MARA reported third-quarter revenue of $131.6 million, missing the consensus estimate of $151.67 million and an adjusted loss of 34 cents per share, missing analyst estimates for a loss of 26 cents per share.

H.C. Wainwright analyst Kevin Dede reiterated the Buy rating and raised the price target to $28 from $27. The analyst notes the current multiple is justified given Bitcoin’s recent surge and increased access through ETFs.

Meanwhile, the analyst lowered the FY24 sales estimate to $597.6 million from $621.1 million due to the results and a more conservative 4.5-cent hash price outlook.

Dede revised FY25 sales to $774.4 million, down slightly from $777.4 million, pending new business impact. The forecast assumes a slower ramp-up to 50 EH/s by early 2025, relying on Bitmain and Auradine for miners, adds the analyst.

JP Morgan analyst Reginald L. Smith has rated the company as Underweight. The analyst writes that MARA was one of the few miners in their coverage to surpass network hashrate growth in the third quarter, but total revenue fell due to lower BTC prices and hosting revenue.

While MARA has no plans to manage AI/HPC compute, it is positioning itself as an infrastructure supplier to data center operators and a leader in energy transformation with proprietary technologies, adds the analyst.

Although it remains the largest publicly traded miner by hashrate and is diversifying away from pure-play mining, the analyst notes its premium valuation is not fully justified, given the deteriorating economics.

Needham analyst John Todaro has given the miner a Hold rating. The analyst says that as Bitcoin rallies into 2025, peaking around $100k per BTC, they anticipate margin relief for miners like MARA.

However, rising hash rates could offset some of these gains, adds the analyst. The analyst assumes more conservative hash growth for MARA going forward and that the company does not pursue HPC/AI initiatives.

Investors can gain exposure to the stock via First Trust SkyBridge Crypto Industry and Digital Economy ETF CRPT and iShares Trust iShares Blockchain and Tech ETF IBLC.

Price Action: MARA shares are down 5.23% at $23.91 at the last check Wednesday.

Photo via Shutterstock

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