Most Tesla Semi Customers Have Waited Seven Years Already. Will They Really Have To Wait A Full Decade?

When it was announced in 2017, the Tesla Semi was supposed to be a game-changer. With promises of a greener future for the trucking industry and orders from big-name companies like PepsiCo, UPS and Sysco, Tesla’s electric truck generated a lot of excitement. But now, seven years later, many customers are still waiting. And some might wait a decade before they see their trucks roll in.

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The Long Wait for the Tesla Semi

PepsiCo is seemingly the only company able to get its hands on Tesla Semis, but for most other customers, it's been nothing but waiting. UPS, Sysco, DHL and others have yet to receive any of their trucks, even though they placed their orders in 2017. UPS alone reserved 125 Semis, but there's still no timeline for when those deliveries will happen.

Tesla deployed around 100 trucks in the U.S., mainly to PepsiCo, with these vehicles racking up almost five million miles. The company says production is getting closer, with mass manufacturing expected to kick off “by the end of 2025” at its Nevada Gigafactory. But that means that for many customers, the wait could stretch to nearly 10 years from when they placed their orders.

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Challenges in Meeting Demand

Why the delays? Building a heavy-duty electric truck isn’t easy and Tesla has faced significant challenges – everything from production hurdles to fine-tuning the vehicle’s reliability. While Tesla’s Megawatt charging station aims to make recharging as fast as diesel refueling, building the needed infrastructure takes time, especially when entering the notoriously tough Class 8 truck market.

Tesla’s competitors haven't been idle either. Chinese startup Windrose, for example, is making moves to set up an assembly plant in Georgia. According to the company, it hopes to compete directly with Tesla and already has 6,400 orders on the books – mainly from U.S. companies like Nike. 

Windrose's electric semi has a range of 418 miles when fully loaded at 49 tons. By comparison, the Tesla Semi offers a range between 300 and 500 miles when loaded. Windrose recently completed a 1,600 km test in China and has started trials in Europe with Decathlon. They are determined to stake their claim, especially while Tesla struggles to get the Semi out to its long-waiting customers.

Tesla also plans to bring the Semi to Europe and even worldwide, but it's not as simple as just shipping trucks overseas. The vehicle needs to comply with European regulations, which means design tweaks and new versions – like a shorter model to fit EU size requirements. Even then, European companies like Girteka, Fercam and others that placed orders nearly seven years ago are still waiting, with no clear end in sight.

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Is There Still Hope for Tesla Semi Customers?

The real question is whether Tesla can get production running at the scale needed to fulfill all these long-standing orders. Analysts remain skeptical, noting that Tesla will have to compete with heavyweights like Volvo, Daimler and Freightliner, who already have electric trucks in production. It's a tall order for Tesla to instantly grab a big share of the Class 8 market, especially considering the delays.

While it's been a rocky road, Tesla has a history of pulling off the improbable. Its past successes in passenger cars remind us that nothing is impossible, even if the timeline doesn't always go as planned.

Still, in October 2022, Elon Musk assured investors that Tesla would produce 50,000 Tesla Semi trucks by 2024 and that hasn't happened.

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