EVgo Powers On Despite Trump Shake-Up: Analyst Projects 16% US Battery EV Penetration By 2030

The looming threat of the removal of the clean energy tax credit has rattled some, but JPMorgan analyst Bill Peterson says EVgo Inc. EVGO is set up for success.

"EVGO sees improving affordability of a larger variety of vehicles as being the primary driver of mass EV adoption," Peterson says, adding, "new EV sales would need to decline by 40% to impact the company's trajectory, which is unlikely to happen."

Even if the credit is removed, Peterson forecasts that "16% US [battery electric vehicle] penetration by 2030" is still achievable.

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"While it has been reported that Trump's transition team intends to remove the 30D tax credit, there could be alternative ways that the administration changes it," he said, suggesting modifications like domestic content requirements or changes to MSRP and income eligibility.

EVgo’s Strategic Footprint Protects Growth

EVgo's strategic positioning in Republican-led states like Texas, Florida, and Arizona also sets it up for success, especially considering that these regions don't have the same emissions standards as California. Peterson added, "EVGO is relatively shielded from new EV sales growth, given it continues to drive momentum from a stable/growing EV fleet," while pointing to opportunities in autonomous and rideshare markets as potential additional growth drivers.

EVgo's confidence surrounding its Department of Energy (DOE) loan is "reaffirmed.” CEO Badar Khan called the process "de-risked" and nearing closure. Peterson feels the loan will allow EVgo to revise its EBITDA targets upward, stating, "We feel confident that EVGO will revise its EBITDA targets higher upon receiving the loan and disclose its planned build schedule through 2030."

Funding Concerns Seem Overblown

Despite some investor concerns about a potential clawback of funds, Peterson remains unconcerned, stating, "The government is unlikely to renegotiate its finalized contracts with US companies, especially if building charging infrastructure stimulates further EV demand and improves US competitiveness with China."

Peterson also noted that, despite concerns over the loss of the 30C tax credit, "EVGO's business model is not reliant on highway sites."

EVGO Stock: A Bullish Trajectory

With 10,000 viable sites and further expansion on the horizon, EVgo's trajectory is still bullish. Peterson concluded that, "The opportunities for growth continue to increase with EV adoption," making EVgo a strong contender in the EV infrastructure race.

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