Costco's Combo Of Strong Loyalty, Unmatched Value Is Rare In Retail: Analyst

On Thursday, JP Morgan analyst Christopher Horvers raised the price target on Costco Wholesale Corporation COST to $1,090 (from $945 prior) while maintaining an Overweight rating following November sales results.

The company reported net sales of $21.87 billion for the retail month of November (four weeks ending December 1, 2024), reflecting a 5.6% increase from $20.71 billion last year.

For the twelve-week first quarter ending November 24, 2024, net sales reached $60.99 billion, up 7.5% from $56.72 billion last year. Net sales for the first thirteen weeks totaled $66.52 billion, an increase of 7.2% compared to $62.04 billion in the prior year.

E-commerce sales in November were down by an estimated 15 percentage points due to the later timing of Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday this year compared to last year. This shift resulted in a roughly 1.5% decrease in total and comparable sales.

The analyst writes that they continue to believe that COST remains a core holding due to its unmatched value proposition, characterized by 11% gross margins, a loyal customer base with a ~90% renewal rate, and a global growth opportunity of 2%-3% annually.

The analyst adds that this combination is rare in retail and consumer staples, with the potential to double its current store base. The latter is its GICS classification.

The analyst adds that Costco continues to outperform most of retail in terms of share gains and traffic trends, particularly due to its 70% consumable assortment.

For December, the analyst expects core U.S. comps to be +6.7%, Canada to +8.2%, and Other International to +9.0%, resulting in a total company core comp of +7.2%.

Investors can gain exposure to the stock via Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF VDC and Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF FSTA.

Price Action: COST shares are down 0.49% at $986.06 at the last check Thursday.

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