Zinger Key Points
- Jefferies downgraded Biogen from Buy to Hold, setting a new price target of $180, down from $250.
- Biogen faces potential earnings drop of 20-30% by 2030 due to Ocrevus biosimilar competition.
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Jefferies downgraded Biogen Inc BIIB, citing the company’s tough setup.
Leqembi (lecanemab) sales growth remains sluggish, falling below consensus projections through 2030.
Challenges like PET scan reimbursement, slow protocol updates at major hospital networks, and identifying eligible patients continue to hinder adoption.
The analyst sees limited downside at current valuations and notes that continued pipeline progress, regulatory approvals, and a successful lecanemab launch could push the stock to around $350.
Also Read: Biogen Gains Momentum With Positive Lupus Drug Results, Analyst Sees Modest Valuation Upside
Additionally, Jefferies writes that strategic options, particularly amid the CEO transition, provide a safety net if the stock drops to about $175.
Biogen acknowledges these obstacles vary by hospital or office, adding complexity to addressing them and setting clear timelines for resolution.
Meanwhile, Eli Lilly And Co's LLY newly launched Kisunla (donanemab) is performing well, including some initial inventory stocking.
Jefferies downgraded Biogen from Buy to Hold with a price target of $180, down from $250.
The analyst highlights a lack of exciting new developments to attract investor interest. Analysts noted that while Biogen has $7-10 billion in capacity for business deals, these efforts will take time to materialize.
Additionally, they highlighted a significant risk in 2030, when royalties from Ocrevus—currently worth $1.5 billion annually—are expected to drop by more than 50% due to the FDA approval of biosimilars. This reduction could cut Biogen's earnings per share by 20-30%.
Jefferies writes the company may seek to acquire “tuck-in” specialty commercial areas.
Biogen faced several pipeline setbacks in 2024, including programs for ALS, tremor, and Angelman syndrome.
Two promising late-stage programs, felzartamab entering Phase 3 trials for IgA nephropathy and dapi starting a second Phase 3 trial for lupus, show potential.
However, their results are years away (expected in 2027-2029), and both target highly competitive markets. As such, these drugs are unlikely to address concerns about Biogen’s earnings growth between 2025 and 2030.
Price Action: BIIB stock is up 0.18% at $158.06 at last check Monday.
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