Exxon Has A Differentiated Permian Position Post-Pioneer Deal: Goldman Sachs Analyst

Goldman Sachs analyst Neil Mehta rated Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM Neutral and a price target of $125.

Yesterday, the company unveiled its Corporate Plan to 2030, targeting an additional $20 billion in earnings and $30 billion in cash flow over the next six years.

The 2030 goals include increasing Pioneer acquisition synergies by 50% to over $3 billion annually, growing new business earnings to $3 billion.

ExxonMobil is targeting up to $30 billion in lower-emissions investments and will allocate $27 billion – $29 billion in capex for 2025, with annual investments of $28 billion – $33 billion from 2026 to 2030, while reducing the reinvestment rate to 40%.

The analyst says that Exxon highlighted its differentiated Permian position post-Pioneer acquisition, leveraging non-sand proppants for better well performance.

Mehta notes that over the next 12 months, the company plans to deploy the technology in over 200 wells, though supply chain constraints remain a key focus for managing the deployment cadence.

However, Exxon was more cautious than expected regarding its 2030 volume outlook for Guyana, with forecasts set at 1.3 million bpd, compared to Goldman Sachs’ estimate of 1.5 million bpd, adds the analyst.

Mehta says that the company emphasized its ongoing focus on using 4D seismic technology and expanding high-performance computing capacity to enhance resource recovery and maximize value capture.

Additionally, the analyst notes that ExxonMobil is continuing to collaborate closely with the Guyanese government on gas development projects.

Going forward, the analyst says that it will closely monitor management’s updates on the execution of various LNG projects, particularly Golden Pass, due to previous challenges with execution and timing.

The analyst estimates EPS of $7.91 for 2024, $8.35 for 2025 and $9.71 for 2026.

Investors can gain exposure to XOM via EA Series Trust Strive U.S. Energy ETF DRLL and Vanguard Energy Index Fund ETF VDE.

Price Action: XOM shares are down 0.39% at $111.48 at the last check Thursday.

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