After a surge in betting on prediction markets for outcomes of events like the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the next market that is generating plenty of interest and concern from regulators is the outcome of the murder trial of Luigi Mangione.
What Happened: Mangione recently pleaded not guilty to New York state charges that include murder in the first degree of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson.
Recently extradited from Pennsylvania to New York, Mangione also faces federal charges that could lead to a death penalty sentence if he is found guilty.
Mangione’s story has captured plenty of attention in America as evidence linked the killing of Thompson, who was CEO of the insurance company owned by UnitedHealth Group UNH, to Mangione allegedly targeting the health insurance sector that he viewed as putting greed ahead of consumer health.
Ahead of Mangione's extradition and court hearings, people in the U.S. and around the world have been able to bet on the outcomes thanks to the rise of prediction markets.
Kalshi, which is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, took wagers on several items beginning on Nov. 11 and bragged about the numerous markets on social media platform X.
Among the Kalshi markets: whether Mangione would be extradited, whether he would plead guilty, if he would be convicted, if he or a family member had insurance with UnitedHealthcare and whether he acted alone in the alleged murder of Thompson.
Kalshi halted the Mangione markets, but they can still be found on the website through a search. The markets are listed as "paused." Kalshi has put the blame for the halt in the hands of regulators, according to a report from Bloomberg.
The CFTC bans futures trading for war, terrorism and crimes like assassinations, according to the report.
Prediction market Polymarket has multiple markets open connected to the Mangione case, including whether a YouTube channel connected to him is real, if he was a lone actor, if he will fire his lawyer, whether his parents were UnitedHealthcare customers and if he used psychedelics.
Polymarket is not regulated in the United States. On Polymarket, users can deposit funds using USDC USDC/USD via the Polygon MATIC/USD network or can deposit directly from a crypto account with Ethereum ETH/USD.
BetUS, which is regulated in certain territories, is offering betting odds on several Mangione-related outcomes like whether he will plead guilty before May 31, 2025. The betting odds are set at -350 for No and +225 for Yes. BetUS also said it will offer lines on whether Mangione used psychedelics and if he will fire his lawyer in 2025.
Read Also: UnitedHealthcare CEO Murder Suspect: Chronic Pain, Unabomber Fascination, Isolation Details Emerge
Why It's Important: Mangione's case has led to plenty of support from the public due to hatred for the health insurance industry by some, an item touched on by popular podcaster Joe Rogan.
Supporters have shown up outside courtrooms with signs backing the alleged murderer. The mention of Mangione on a recent episode of "Saturday Night Live" led members of the audience to cheer at his name.
Prediction markets have risen in popularity thanks to the 2024 election and are able to offer markets quickly on a variety of topics and viral news stories.
When it comes to murder cases, there will likely be push back from regulators and members of the public who see a moral obligation to avoid profiting from bad actors.
Read Next:
Luigi Mangione photo courtesy of Pennsylvania State Police.
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
Comments
Trade confidently with insights and alerts from analyst ratings, free reports and breaking news that affects the stocks you care about.
