Automotive research firm S&P Global Mobility expects 15.1 million units of battery electric vehicles to be sold in 2025, marking a growth of 30% from 2024 levels.
What Happened: S&P Global Mobility expects battery electric vehicle sales to account for an estimated 16.7% of global light vehicle sales in 2025, up from 13.2% market share in 2024.
While battery electric vehicles will account for 29.7% of light vehicle sales in China, in the U.S. it will be only 11.2%, the firm said. However, BEV market share will increase across Europe, the U.S., China, and India, it added.
The firm now expects 89.5 million new vehicles to be sold globally next year, marking a growth of 1.7% year-on-year.
“2025 is shaping up to be ultra-challenging for the auto industry, as key regional demand factors limit demand potential and the new US administration adds fresh uncertainty from day one,” said Colin Couchman, executive director of global light vehicle forecasting for S&P Global Mobility, in a statement. “A key concern is how ‘natural’ EV demand fares as governments rethink policy support, especially incentives and subsidies, industrial policy, tariffs, and fast-evolving OEM target setting.”
Why It Matters: Beyond 2025, the firm sees many factors impacting the EV transition, including charging infrastructure, battery supply chains, tariff trade barriers, and more. There is also less certainty around President-elect Donald Trump’s support for electric vehicles, the firm noted.
In the U.S. alone, S&P expects vehicle sales volume to touch 16.2 million units in 2025, marking a 1.2% growth from the 16 million projected for 2024.
“New vehicle affordability issues that coalesced to constrain auto demand levels for much of 2024 will not be resolved quickly in 2025. Vehicle pricing levels are expected to decline but remain high; interest rates are expected to shift further downwards, but inflation levels are anticipated to remain sticky, and new vehicle inventory should also progress, but careful management is expected too,” said Chris Hopson, manager of North American light vehicle sales forecasting for S&P Global Mobility.
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