Analyst Sees US Steel Price Rebound Under Trump's Pro-Tariff Stance, Upgrades Cleveland-Cliffs Stock

GLJ Research analyst Gordon L. Johnson II upgraded Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. CLF to Buy from Sell rating with a price forecast of $14.27.

The analyst notes the U.S. economy is in worse shape than many acknowledge. With Donald Trump set to take office on January 20, 2025, and his pro-tariff policies likely impacting sectors like steel, the analyst foresee a potential rise in U.S. HRC prices in the near term.

In particular, the analyst says that following Trump’s win (November 2016), and Joe Biden’s win (November 2020), U.S. HRC spot prices rose by +25.5% and +65.9%, respectively, three months out. However, since Trump’s win on November 5, 2024, U.S. HRC spot prices have declined by 6.9%.

Also, the positive seasonality typically seen in the U.S. steel sector from January to April, and CLF’s stock performance in particular, raises the question: “Is now an opportune time to dip one’s feet back into the ‘long-U.S.-

steel-stocks pool’?” adds the analyst.

Notably, Johnson II states that from the month Trump was first elected to the month he lost to Biden, U.S. steel imports fell by a significant -51.1%, from 2.5 million tons to 1.2 million tons. This decline is often attributed to Trump’s pro-U.S. steel policies.

Incorporating Stelco’s additional tons into CLF’s 2025 estimated output, and assuming U.S. HRC prices rise to $900/ton in May 2025 before falling to $705/ton by July, the analyst estimate CLF’s 2025 aggregated steel price to be $1,055/ton, slightly higher than the consensus estimate of $1,050.22/ton.

For 2026, Johnson II forecast an average price of $1,068/ton, reflecting a +1.2% year-over-year increase, vs. the consensus estimate of $1,084.42/ton.

Consequently, the analyst project 2025 adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS of $945 million and -$0.56, respectively, vs. consensus estimates of $1.32 billion and -$0.09.

In 2026, the analyst expects adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS of $1.804 billion and $1.06, respectively, while the consensus estimates are $1.884 million and $0.69.

Investors can gain exposure to the stock via VanEck Steel ETF SLX and SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF XME.

Price Action: CLF shares are up 1.26% at $10.03 at the last check Tuesday.

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