Zinger Key Points
- Google stock outperformed S&P 500 in 2024, up 35%, driven by AI product launches, strong cost discipline and Cloud growth.
- Analyst sees 2025 as pivotal for Google's AI leadership or risk of search disruption, with ad opportunities and AI overviews boosting growth
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Bank Of America Securities analyst Justin Post maintained a Buy rating on Alphabet Inc GOOG GOOGL Google with a price target of $225, up from $210.
In 2024, Alphabet stock (up 35%) outperformed the S&P 500 (up 23%) and benefited from new product launches offsetting Al concerns (OpenAI traction), strong cost discipline, improving Cloud growth and positive estimates revisions.
However, the threat of disruption from emerging Generative-Al search platforms and adverse judgment in the DOJ search case weighed on multiple versus FANG peers.
Also Read: Samsung’s Outlook Dims Amid HBM Supply Struggles for Nvidia and Sluggish Consumer Chip Sales
With search still far outpacing the value of other businesses, Post noted 2025 as a pivotal year, which could help establish Google as either an Al leader (via AI Overview traction) or elevate search disruption risk.
Google’s potential positives include growing usage of AI overviews and new ad opportunities around informational queries, greater appreciation of AI assets and AI-driven performance driving multiple expansion, potential for change (or settlement) in Search case trajectory under new administration, increasing value contribution from cloud business, and new disclosures or cost cuts under new CFO.
However, Post lowered estimates for recent US dollar appreciation and lowered 2025 EPS to below-Street $8.78 (from $8.96). The price target boost reflects 2026 GAAP EPS of $10.06 (versus $10.31 previously) and a lower 21x multiple (versus 22x previously), plus cash.
Price Action: GOOGL stock is up 0.04% at $191.16 at last check Tuesday.
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