Mastercard Is Fairly Valued And Lacks An Identifiable Catalyst; Analyst Downgrades Stock

Seaport analyst Jeff Cantwell downgraded Mastercard Incorporated MA to Neutral from Buy rating, with a price target of $521.

The analyst writes that he continues to like Mastercard’s story but views the shares as fairly valued at this point.

Revenue upside in 2025 appears more limited due to its higher international exposure compared to Visa, and Mastercard lacks an identifiable catalyst, adds the analyst.

Last year, the analyst favored Mastercard over Visa. However, this year, the analyst prefers Visa relative to Mastercard, highlighting that Visa’s volumes and revenue are more U.S.-centric, where expectations are rising, while Mastercard is more exposed to international markets, which face greater risks to PCE growth.

Related: This Analyst Prefers Visa Over Mastercard In 2025 – Here’s Why

Additionally, with Mastercard’s Investor Day already passed, the analyst doesn’t see any identifiable catalysts for the stock this year.

Cantwell says that with the upcoming administration change in the U.S., 2025 is expected to be fluid, requiring investors to stay vigilant.

Potential policy adjustments could impact consumer and business spending, and factors like FX, inflation, and the Fed’s rate cuts further complicate the outlook, adds the analyst.

The analyst foresees a higher potential for earnings surprises in Fintech this year compared to previous years.

Investors can gain exposure to the stock via Principal Exchange-Traded Funds Principal Focused Blue Chip ETF BCHP and iShares U.S. Financial Services ETF IYG.

Price Action: MA shares are up 0.78% at $508.83 at the last check Tuesday.

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