EXCLUSIVE: Can S&P 500 Repeat Large Gains From Donald Trump's First Term A Second Time Around? Readers Say This Return Range Most Likely

The S&P 500 Index and many stocks saw gains during Donald Trump's first term in the White House from 2017 to 2021. A new reader poll predicts how high the S&P 500 will go in Trump's next four years in office as he heads back to the White House on Monday, Jan. 20.

What Happened: Investors are weighing the impact of potential tariffs proposed by Trump that could happen under his next presidential term.

The last time Trump was in office, stock markets saw strong returns, including a strong first-year performance for many stock market indices.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY, which tracks the S&P 500, was up 70% during Trump's first term in the White House.

Benzinga recently asked if the returns for his next four-year term would be similar.

"What do you think the return will be from 2025 through 2029?”

The results were:

• 31% to 45%: 33%
• 0% to 15%: 24%
• 61% or More: 22%
• 46% to 60%: 13%
• Will Decline: 8%

The winning vote getter was a range of 31% to 45%. This would equate to an average of around 7.8% to 11.3% annually. The S&P 500 has an average annual return of around 10%, meaning readers see the index having average returns during Trump's upcoming time in the White House.

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Why It's Important: Trump famously predicted there would be an economic downturn and the stock market would crash if he did not win the 2020 presidential election.

While the economy saw turbulent times that had high inflation and worries for consumers during parts of President Joe Biden's time in the White House, stock market indices also hit all-time highs.

The Dow Jones and S&P 500 each hit highs while Biden was in office, leading to the president clapping back at Trump's earlier prediction.

"Good one, Donald," Biden wrote in a post on X, sharing a campaign video that highlighted the stock market's record highs.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF is up 64.6% from Jan. 20, 2021 through Jan. 17, 2025 based on a price of $596.80 at the time of writing, making the return under Biden nearly the same as during Trump's first four years.

Here's a look at the returns by year for times when Biden and Trump were in office, with Biden inaugurated in 2021 and Trump inaugurated in 2017:

• 2024: +24.9%
• 2023: +26.2%
• 2022: -18.2%
• 2021: +28.8%
• 2020: +18.4%
• 2019: +31.2%
• 2018: -4.6%
• 2017: +21.7%

Along with anticipating how the stock market will do during Trump's next four years in the White House, Benzinga recently asked, "What do you think the return will be in 2025, his first year back?"

The results were:

• 16%+: 26%
• 11% to 15%: 22%
• Will Decline: 22%
• 6% to 10%: 19%
• 0% to 5%: 12%

The poll found the largest percentage believe the S&P 500 Index will post gains of at least 16% in 2025. The 11% to 15% range came in second place at 22%.

It’s also worth pointing out that the S&P 500 decline in 2025 was actually tied for second in the poll at 22%, which could mean 2025 is a make-or-break year.

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The study was conducted by Benzinga from Jan. 14, 2025 through Jan. 15, 2025. It included the responses of a diverse population of adults 18 or older. Opting into the survey was completely voluntary, with no incentives offered to potential respondents. The study reflects results from 107 adults.

Image: Shutterstock