The Bank of Japan has raised interest rates by 25 basis points, marking a 17-year high of 0.50%. This move signifies the end of an era of historically low interest rates for the Asian exporter. We assess how BOJ’s move can impact the U.S. dollar and the stock market.
What Happened: An increase in interest rates generally leads to higher yields, and less liquidity in the system leading to uncertainty in the stock market.
Investors have famously used Japan’s historically low interest rates for a carry trade, which involves borrowing in yen and investing in other higher-yielding assets.
However, BOJ’s rate decision could lead to “the unwinding of carry trade positions,” said Markus Ammann, the global advisor at BierbaumPro AG, in a LinkedIn post.
“Japan's evolving monetary strategy reflects its efforts to adapt to changing economic conditions while addressing decades-long deflationary pressures,” said Giordano Colombini, the co-founder of MG Bridge Consulting.
Impact On Yields
After BOJ’s announcement, the U.S. Treasuries remained largely unchanged, with the 10-year bond yielding 4.63% and the two-year bond at 4.27%. The Japanese two-year and 10-year bonds rose to 0.72% and 1.24%, respectively.
“Traders had almost fully priced in a rate change while about three-quarters of economists predicted the move in a Bloomberg survey released last week,” the global macroeconomic expert, Anish Nanda told Benzinga.
Japanese investors are the largest foreign holders of U.S. Treasuries, said Nanda, adding that “Rate hikes in Japan could impact U.S. investors, it would pressure U.S. Treasuries if Japanese investors were to pull money out.”
Impact On Dollar
While the U.S. dollar fell by 0.40% to 107.627, as of 7:22 a.m., ET, the USD/JPY rate pulled back from the day’s high of 156.4.
According to Nanda, future rate hikes could further boost the yen and any decision to cut interest rates by the Fed would likely weaken the dollar. Simultaneously, the dollar continues to be under pressure following the Trump administration’s call for imposing tariffs.
“The yen is expected to gain further ground if the BOJ maintains its hawkish stance, though volatility is expected in the USD to JPY pair,” he added.
Impact On U.S. Market
While the change in Japan’s monetary policy has no direct impact on the U.S. market, a weaker dollar, higher yields and resultant change in liquidity environment can create headwinds for U.S. equities, also owing to changes in its own economic policies.
“The interplay of economic policies, inflation trends, and market reactions is shaping a volatile yet intriguing narrative for 2025,” said Jez Jacob, the AVP at Finvasia.
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© 2025 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
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