Qualcomm Gains $2 Billion Boost From Samsung S25 Chipset Deal, Analyst Highlights Growth in Handsets and Beyond

JP Morgan analyst Samik Chatterjee maintained an Overweight rating on Qualcomm Inc QCOM.

Samsung Electronics recently launched its latest flagship smartphone, the S25, which features Snapdragon chipsets across all variants.

This marks a share gain for Qualcomm compared to the prior generation flagship S24, where the Base and Plus models outside North America and China used Samsung’s in-house Exynos chipset.

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Regaining this share at Samsung underscores Qualcomm’s technological leadership in mobile processors, which continues to expand into other key markets, including automotive and IoT.

Regarding the benefit from the incremental share, Chatterjee estimates the incremental revenue opportunity to amount to $2 billion within the Handset TAM and incremental EPS of about $0.63 (5% of fiscal 2025E EPS consensus).

According to Chatterjee’s estimate, incremental share gain with S25 amounts to an incremental 12 million units.  

Chatterjee estimates the prior-generation flagship S24 shipments to be close to 40 million units in 2024, with 20 million for the high-end Ultra models.

With an estimated 60%/40% of the lower-end models leveraging Exynos / Snapdragon in the S24 line-up (only the U.S. and China leveraged SD), Chatterjee estimated Qualcomm had a 70% share of the last flagship, which will increase to 100% in the current generation flagship S25, or an incremental 12 million units year-on-year. The incremental units lead Chatterjee to an estimated incremental revenue of $2 billion, which implies an incremental EPS contribution of 5%.

Earlier this week, Chatterjee placed Qualcomm on Positive Catalyst Watch for the upcoming earnings print, with an upside from the expected share gain at Samsung as one of the drivers. He has already included the upside in his model.

Qualcomm stock surged 13% in the last 12 months. Investors can gain exposure to the stock through First Trust Nasdaq Semiconductor ETF FTXL and iShares Semiconductor ETF SOXX.

Price Action: QCOM stock is down 0.41% at $173.64 at last check Friday.

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