EV giant Tesla Inc. TSLA will realistically deliver 1.8 million vehicles this year, more or less in line with its deliveries in 2024, according to researcher Troy Teslike.
What Happened: Teslike said in a post on social media platform X that the company would realistically deliver 1.8 million vehicles in 2025. While 1.9 million vehicle deliveries will be “very optimistic,” 1.7 million would be “below expectations,” the analyst said.
Teslike’s realistic numbers mark meagre to no growth from 2024 when the company delivered 1,789,226 vehicles. In a post reply, he dismissed the impact of the company launching a new and refreshed version of its best-selling Model Y SUV on deliveries noting that the launch of a refreshed version of the Model 3 in China in late 2023 and in the U.S. in early 2024 did not aid annual deliveries.
Teslike’s estimates also consider Tesla’s promise for new vehicles, including more affordable ones in the first half of 2025.
“When Elon says the first half of 2025, he means the last day of June. I already included the lower-cost model in Q3 and Q4,” Teslike said while adding that the vehicle will likely be priced below $30,000 after counting in a federal EV tax credit of $7500, implying the vehicle will cost nearly $37,500 without the credit.
Why It Matters: Tesla launched a new and refreshed version of the Model Y first in China earlier this month and in the U.S. earlier this week. Deliveries in both geographies are slated to start in March.
In the U.S., the long-range all-wheel drive variant of the refreshed Model Y starts at $59,990, or about 25% more expensive than its predecessor.
The company has warned of price hikes on its entire car lineup in the neighboring market of Canada starting Feb. 1, with Model 3 prices expected to rise by as much as C$9000.
In China, Tesla’s second biggest market after the U.S., the company hiked prices of the Model 3 by 3,600 yuan earlier this month as it faces severe competition from Chinese EV makers.
In Tesla’s last quarterly report, the company said that its plans for new vehicles, including more affordable ones, remain “on track” for the start of production in the first half. The company said these vehicles will be produced on the same manufacturing lines as its current lineup.
Tesla reported global deliveries of 1.79 million vehicles in 2024, down from full-year deliveries of 1.81 million in 2023, marking the first decline in over a decade.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk, however, said in October that he expects vehicle sales to grow by 20%-30% in 2025.
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