DeepSeek Sell-off Offers Opportunities On Semicaps, Analyst Bumps Up Price Forecasts For KLA, Nova And Camtek

BofA Securities analyst Vivek Arya previewed fourth-quarter earnings for semiconductor capital equipment (semicap), where reporting kicks off with ASML Holding ASML, Lam Research Corp LRCX on January 29 and  KLA Corp KLAC on January 30.

Subsector sentiment has broadly improved year-to-date, but Arya noted multiple nuances further complicated by the fallout from DeepSeek’s possible breakthrough. On one hand, the analyst noted risks like lower AI-related spending if DeepSeek’s R1 translates to lower compute demand for LLMs, capex cuts across memory (Micron Technology, Inc MU, SK Hynix, Samsung) and Samsung Foundry and consensus estimates still appear high relative to industry growth expectations.

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However, and more positively, he noted if DeepSeek means inference is more economical to perform at the edge, it could catalyze a PC/smartphone device upgrade cycle, which would support leading-edge Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE), December’s China export restrictions less onerous than expected, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co TSM calendar 2025 capex beat & long-term AI sales CAGR of +40% (positive for complexity drivers), and Intel Corp INTC capex plans intact.

Amidst these moving parts, Arya noted that his $105 billion WFE view for calendar 2025 still holds and that he expects more alignment on these issues with upcoming reports. Given constructive recent data points for leading-edge foundry/logic and HBM spend, Arya raised his price targets for KLA Corp to $840 from $800, Nova Ltd NVMI to $270 from $245, and Camtek Ltd CAMT to $100 from $95, and reiterated his positive thesis for the cohort given tech inflection-led growth and strong free cash flow generation.

Arya also raised China WFE this year to $31.5 billion (now down -15% Y/Y) as local Chinese semicaps gain share. The analyst noted that leading-edge foundry/logic and HBM spending are the most robust and favor exposure there.

Consensus estimates for the top 5 semicaps model 10% Y/Y combined growth for calendar 2025 versus 12% Y/Y in early December. While expectations appear more reasonable, this is still above Arya’s +5% WFE forecast. Ex-ASML, top semicap growth is 8% (versus 11% prior). The analyst’s combined forecast for Applied Materials, Inc AMAT, Lam Research and KLA Corp are +7.2% Y/Y.

Even after the DeepSeek sell-off, semicap stocks have outperformed the sector year-to-date with Nova Ltd (+13%), KLA Corp (+12%), Applied Materials (+10%), Camtek Ltd (+6%), and Lam Research (+5%) all ahead of the SOX (down 3% year-to-date).

Valuation ranging from 19-30 times NTM P/E has been re-rated to catch up with emerging anticipations for WFE growth, but it is still attractive given that $150 billion WFE by calendar 2030-32 implies +7.5% long-term CAGR, tech inflection-led growth accelerates calendar 2025, and superior 20%- 36% FCF margins versus a median of 14% for S&P 500 industrial companies.

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