Is Deckers' Growth Story Slowing? Analysts Share Mixed Views

Deckers Outdoor Corporation DECK shares are trading lower today.

Yesterday, Deckers Outdoor reported quarterly earnings of $3 per share which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $2.55. Quarterly revenue came in at $1.83 billion, which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $1.73 billion and is an increase over sales of $1.56 billion from the same period last year.

Deckers Outdoor sees fiscal 2025 revenue growth of 15% and fiscal 2025 earnings of between $5.75 and $5.80 per share.

Here are the analysts’ take on the quarterly performance:

Telsey Advisory Group analyst Dana Telsey reiterated the Outperform rating in the stock, with a price forecast of $240.
Piper Sandler analyst Anna Andreeva reiterated the Neutral rating on the stock, with a price forecast of $210.
Truist Securities analyst Joseph Civello maintained the Buy rating on the stock, lowering the price forecast to $225 from $235.
Needham analyst Tom Nikic reiterated the Buy rating on Deckers, with a price forecast of $246.
Stifel analyst Jim Duffy maintained the Hold rating on the stock, raising the price forecast to $185 from $181.
Guggenheim analyst Robert Drbul reiterated the Neutral rating on the stock.

Telsey Advisory Group: The analyst writes that the company continues to deliver strong results in an uncertain macro operating environment, while managing the business for longterm health through prudent pull-model inventory distribution.

Following the divestiture of the Sanuk brand in mid-2024, the analyst views Deckers’ plans to phase out Koolburra as a prudent move to refocus resources and investments on its core business and growth brands.

The analyst now looks for FY25 EPS of $5.90, up from $5.66 prior and compared to $4.86 last year.

Piper Sandler : The analyst suggests that the company’s fourth quarter sales guidance indicates a slowdown, with a lower gross margin due to higher markdowns on UGG products.

Despite less inventory, the firm expects increased markdowns, which had been beneficial in the previous two quarters. The analyst projects sales to grow by 17% in FY25 and 13% in FY26. EBIT margins are projected at 22.5% for FY25 and 21.7% for FY26.

Truist Securities: Per Civello, the quarterly slowdown is mainly due to inventory management, UGG shortages, tough comparisons, and a conservative outlook. The analyst remains positive on the company’s growth and sees the current weakness as a buying opportunity.

The analyst has increased their EPS forecasts for FY25 and FY26 to $5.90 and $6.85, respectively, up from $5.70 and $6.75.

Needham: According to Nikic, Deckers is one of the highest-quality companies in the coverage, with a multi-year track record of performance, two of the strongest brands in the industry (Hoka and UGG), a stellar management team and a fortress balance sheet.

The analyst writes that fiscal 2H25 is highly conservative, presenting a compelling beat-and-raise setup into the next few quarters.

Stifel: Per Duffy, the company is likely to exceed expectations for the fourth quarter, but the consensus HOKA growth projections for FY26 and beyond may be too optimistic.

While impressed with the company’s execution and long-term strategies, the analyst is comfortable with below-consensus FY26 estimates given the slowing HOKA growth.

Guggenheim: For FY25, the analyst raised gross margin estimate to 57.2% (from 55.5%), reflecting brand and product mix benefits (higher full-price selling), offset by a more normalized promotional environment and higher freight costs related to the inventory brought in.

Price Action: DECK shares are trading lower by 18.8% to $181.12 at last check Friday.

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